UnitedHealth: A Wobbly Giant?

Now, UnitedHealth Group (UNH 0.55%). A truly enormous beast of a company, isn’t it? It’s been looking a bit peaky lately, drooping like an overwatered houseplant. Shares have been tumbling faster than a sack of potatoes down a hill, even after a rather dreadful 2025 where it shed a whopping 35% of its value. A bit of a pickle, you see.

The market, a rather jumpy bunch at the best of times, is in a proper fluster about those Medicare Advantage rates. They aren’t soaring as high as UnitedHealth would like, and that’s caused a bit of a kerfuffle. Is this a silly overreaction, a bit of a wobble before the giant rights itself? Or is this magnificent, money-making machine about to stumble and fall? Let’s have a good look, shall we?

How Much Trouble is UnitedHealth In?

In 2025, this behemoth raked in a colossal $447.6 billion – a truly monstrous sum. A full 12% more than the year before! And the fastest-growing part of the business? That’s the Medicare & retirement section, gobbling up a hefty $171.3 billion – over 38% of the total! It’s grown by a staggering 89% since 2020, back when it was merely a very large beast, not the truly enormous one it is today.

Medicare has been rather important to UnitedHealth’s growth, you see. The previous administration had ideas about keeping those Medicare Advantage rates flat in 2027. A rather nasty trick, if you ask me. It would certainly put a dent in UnitedHealth’s profits, and investors are right to be a bit twitchy about it.

Is There More Dropping to Come?

UnitedHealth is bracing for a rather gloomy 2026, predicting a drop in income of around 2%. A significant development for a company that’s been growing like a particularly vigorous weed. And now, on top of everything, there’s this business with those Medicare Advantage rates. A double whammy, you see.

If UnitedHealth ends up as a sort of glorified dividend machine – something people buy just for the little trickle of money it pays out, rather than expecting it to actually grow – then its value might reflect that. It might trade at a lower price, you see. Its earnings could worsen with those stubbornly high medical costs and limited income, and its price might stay modest. The stock might look cheap at 14 times earnings, but if nobody expects it to actually do anything exciting, it’s hard to justify paying more for it.

Given all this uncertainty around Medicare and the healthcare business in general, a bit of caution with UnitedHealth might be the wisest course. A wait-and-see approach. Let’s observe this giant carefully, shall we? See if it rights itself, or continues to wobble. It could be quite a spectacle, either way.

2026-02-09 18:02

How Much Trouble is UnitedHealth In?

Is There More Dropping to Come?

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