Tesla: Millionaire Maker or Just a Really Expensive Ride?

Okay, let’s talk Tesla [TSLA +3.25%]. A trillion-and-a-half dollar market cap. It’s basically the Beyoncé of car companies – everyone’s obsessed, and it knows it. And yes, since 2010, if you’d thrown four grand at it, you’d be sunning yourself on a yacht right now. Which is great, if you had four grand in 2010. Most of us were still figuring out how to use dial-up.

The question is, is this still a ticket to early retirement, or are we looking at a beautifully designed, extremely expensive paperweight? Because let’s be honest, the stock market is full of things that look like a shortcut to wealth, but mostly just deliver stress and questionable life choices.

The Core Business is Doing a “Lean In” to Trouble

So, the car part. Deliveries were down 9% last year. Nine percent! That’s like, the difference between a perfectly good avocado and one that’s suspiciously mushy. Revenue followed suit, down 10%. This isn’t the kind of “disruption” investors usually cheer about. It’s more like… a disruption of their portfolio.

Tesla used to be the only cool kid at the electric vehicle party. Now? Everyone’s bringing a charger. Competition is fierce, and that means margins are getting squeezed. Plus, some people still insist on driving cars that require dinosaur juice. Go figure. It’s like they enjoy contributing to the climate crisis. It’s a choice, people!

And yet, the stock trades at a P/E ratio of 390. That’s… ambitious. It’s like pricing a hot dog at $500 because you believe it will cure world hunger. A reasonable investor? They’re probably reaching for the antacids.

Expectations are Currently Orbiting Jupiter

Look, the market is basically betting that Tesla will solve all of humanity’s problems, and also invent a self-folding laundry machine. The expectations are so high, they’ve entered the stratosphere. There’s zero margin for error. It’s like trying to build a house of cards during an earthquake.

But hey, if Tesla does pull off robotaxis and Optimus robots… maybe, just maybe, this stock will still be a winner. Musk once said a robotaxi fleet would have “quasi-infinite” demand. Which, as a portfolio manager, I’m interpreting as “a really, really big marketing budget.” They’re setting up a Cybercab production line, which sounds less like the future of transportation and more like a rejected sci-fi movie title.

And Optimus, the robot? Musk thinks it’ll boost the U.S. GDP. I’m picturing a future where robots are doing all the work, and we’re all just… watching them. It’s either utopia or a very efficient dystopia. Either way, I need a bigger 401k.

Betting against Elon Musk is generally a bad idea. He’s like the James Bond of tech billionaires. But at this valuation? I’m staying on the sidelines. And a friendly reminder: don’t rely on a single stock to fund your retirement. Diversification is your friend. It’s the sensible shoes of the investment world.

2026-02-06 18:32

The Core Business is Doing a “Lean In” to Trouble

Expectations are Currently Orbiting Jupiter

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