As an analyst, I’ve been watching the recent Bitcoin drop to $60,000 closely, and it struck me as unusual. Joe McCann from Asymmetric highlighted this on X, pointing out that the move was a significant -5.65 standard deviations below the 200-day moving average – a pretty substantial shift.
As a crypto investor, I’ve seen some wild swings, and it’s clear these big, unexpected crashes – what they call ‘Black Swan’ events – aren’t as rare in crypto as you might think. Statistically, they’re supposed to be incredibly unlikely, but Bitcoin has already experienced four of them since it started. That really drives home how common these major price drops are in the crypto world, and just how significant this latest one has been.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. recently pointed out on X that Bitcoin was trading significantly below its realized price, at $79.1k. According to AMBCrypto, this 14-month low for the leading cryptocurrency is likely due to its growing connection with the performance of U.S. tech stocks.
Grayscale, a digital asset management firm, also attributed the recent sell-off to the lack of progress on the CLARITY Act.
Bitcoin institutional selling pressure is rising
According to analyst Darkfost, the difference between Coinbase’s price and the broader market reached its lowest point in 2026. This observation is particularly noteworthy because it’s based on volume-weighted data, making the signal more reliable.
A negative gap indicates that Bitcoin is cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance. This likely suggests significant selling activity by major investors in the U.S.
The scenario is challenging and highly uncertain for long-term investors as well as traders.
The price has fallen below its recent low of $74,500. While the week’s trading isn’t finished, the drop to $60,000 suggests the price could fall much further.
Trader Ibrahim suggests Bitcoin might be nearing its lowest price point. He pointed out on CryptoQuant Insights that, historically, the highest monthly closing price during a bear market often marks the bottom – the point where prices start to rise again.
If that is the case once again, the $55k-$60k area could be the current bear market’s bottom.
Historically, Bitcoin has approached these key support levels gradually. However, since November 2025, the price has been falling much faster. Investors holding for the long term might need to wait weeks or even months to see the lowest point of this downturn.
As such, they need not be in any hurry to buy the market pain.
Final Thoughts
- The Bitcoin price drop was a highly improbable event, representing a -5.65σ move in the 200-day lookback period.
- It is unclear if prices will fall further, but traders and investors should operate under the assumption that the market bottom is not yet in.
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2026-02-06 16:58