Rivian: Still Shiny, Possibly Sinking

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Right, let’s talk Rivian. Everyone’s got a hot take on electric vehicles, haven’t they? It’s all very…optimistic. Which, immediately, sets my alarm bells ringing. You see a company promising disruption, I see a potential bonfire of investor cash. Rivian, specifically. They look good. Really good. Sleek trucks, decent reviews. It’s the financials that give me the sweats. Honestly, it’s the same story with most of these startups. A lovely product, a terrifying balance sheet. That’s why, if I’m being brutally honest, Tesla and even Ford – yes, Ford – feel like the slightly less reckless choices right now. Don’t judge me.

Look, Rivian isn’t Lucid. That’s…something. A low bar, admittedly. But it’s still not enough to make me reach for my chequebook. Potential? Absolutely. But potential doesn’t pay the bills, does it? And right now, there’s just too much risk clinging to this thing like static.

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The Current Situation

The EV market is…peculiar. Tesla owns it. Let’s just state that upfront. Forty-three point one percent. It’s almost comical. Everyone else is fighting for the scraps. GM, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagen… they collectively grab another 31.6%. It’s like watching sharks circle a very expensive, slightly wobbly whale.

Rivian had a decent 2025, all things considered. Sixth place in EV sales. Behind BMW, ahead of Honda. Progress, I suppose. Though let’s be real, sixth isn’t exactly winning. They’re selling less than half what Chevrolet manages, and a tenth of Tesla’s numbers. Nearly 600,000 units for Tesla. Six hundred thousand. It’s a bit intimidating, isn’t it?

The end of the EV tax credit last year didn’t help, obviously. Sales dipped 36% in Q4. Overall sales for the year were only down slightly, thankfully. But it’s a reminder that this isn’t a guaranteed rocket ship to the moon. Legacy automakers are pausing their EV plans, which feels… sensible, actually. But the EV train isn’t stopping. Costs are coming down, ranges are increasing. Which is good news for everyone, except maybe the oil companies.

Rivian’s strategy feels…familiar. They’re going for the Tesla playbook. One model – the R1, in truck or SUV form – starting at a cool seventy grand. It’s a statement, isn’t it? A very expensive statement. But they’re launching the R2, a more affordable SUV at $45,000. And there’s a planned R3, a smaller crossover. Apparently, it’s inspired by ’80s rally cars. Which, honestly, sounds fantastic. I might buy one just for the nostalgia.

But here’s the thing. It all comes down to money. And that’s where my optimism starts to…evaporate. It’s why I’m not touching this one just yet.

Electrical Resistance

Okay, some good news. Revenue hit $1.5 billion in Q3 2025, up 78% year-over-year. Gross profit jumped to $24 million. An improvement of $416 million. See? Progress! I’m starting to feel almost…hopeful.

And then you remember they lost $2.75 billion in the first nine months of the year. It’s better than the $4 billion loss last year, but still. It’s…a lot. A truly alarming amount. And their gross margin is just 2%. Two percent! It’s practically homeopathic. Tesla, for comparison, is sitting at 17% and 5% operating margin. It’s a different universe. Rivian also has $4.4 billion in cash, but nearly $5 billion in debt. Which feels…precarious, to say the least.

Look, Rivian could become the next Tesla. It’s possible. We’ll have to see how the R2 launch goes, and the R3 after that. But right now, it feels like a very wobbly tightrope walk. It’s a ‘wait-and-see’ company, and honestly, I’m not a fan of waiting when there’s a perfectly good sofa available.

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2026-02-05 12:14