Lilly’s Little Boost (and My Anxiety)

Right. Eli Lilly (LLY +10.38%). Shares are up, apparently. Over 10% today. Honestly, it’s a bit dizzying, isn’t it? All this money floating around. Makes you wonder what everyone’s actually buying. Apparently, it’s hope, bottled and sold at a premium. Or, you know, medication. Same difference, really.

Lilly’s fourth-quarter revenue hit $19.3 billion. Forty-three percent year-over-year. Let that sink in. They’re basically printing money with those GLP-1 drugs – Mounjaro and Zepbound. Sales surged 110% and 123% respectively, totaling $7.4 billion and $4.3 billion. It’s…aggressive. And let’s be real, it’s fuelled by a society simultaneously obsessed with instant gratification and terrified of aging. Don’t judge me, I’m already pre-ordering the anti-gravity cream.

They’re scrambling to ramp up manufacturing, which is always a good sign, isn’t it? A company trying to keep up with demand. Though I suspect it’s less about altruism and more about maximizing profit. Still, good for them. And good for Medicare beneficiaries, I guess, now that the government’s deal will make those drugs more accessible. Reduced cost is nice. Though I suspect it’ll be offset by something else eventually. It always is.

And then there’s the obesity drug market. Zepbound is apparently beating Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. A clinical trial showed greater weight loss. Honestly, the whole thing feels a bit…sad, doesn’t it? We’re celebrating drugs that help people conform to arbitrary beauty standards. But hey, who am I to judge? I spent three hours debating the perfect filter for my Instagram story this morning.

Lucas Montarce, Lilly’s CFO, said Zepbound has nearly 70% of new prescriptions. Seventy percent! That’s…a lot of people wanting a quick fix. Though, I suppose, if you’re facing a lifetime of health complications, a little chemical assistance isn’t the worst thing in the world. Is it?

Adjusted net income jumped 41% to $6.8 billion. $7.54 per share. Wall Street expected $6.91. Close enough. They’re always off by a bit. It’s like they’re deliberately trying to create a sense of uncertainty. Keeps things interesting, I suppose.

Lilly’s Forecast: More Money, Naturally

Looking ahead, they expect revenue to grow roughly 25% to between $80 billion and $83 billion in 2026. Adjusted earnings per share increasing about 40% to $33.50 to $35.00. Predictable, really. They’re a pharmaceutical company. Growth is kind of their whole thing. Though, I wouldn’t be surprised if something completely unexpected happens. The universe has a way of throwing curveballs, doesn’t it?

Daniel Skovronsky, their chief scientific officer, said they expect more of the same in 2026. “Creating meaningful medicines,” he called it. Which is a lovely sentiment, I suppose. But let’s be honest, it’s also about maximizing shareholder value. And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. Just…don’t pretend it’s purely altruistic. Please.

2026-02-05 06:22

Lilly’s Forecast: More Money, Naturally

Read More