Nvidia: Already Enough, Probably

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Nvidia (NVDA 3.52%). The name itself sounds like a minor deity responsible for keeping the graphics cards running smoothly. And, in a way, it is. For the first couple of decades of its existence as a publicly traded entity, Nvidia plodded along, producing perfectly serviceable graphics processing units. Not remarkable, you understand. Just…there. Then, along came blockchain (a digital ledger, essentially, but trying very hard to be something much more exciting) and artificial intelligence, and suddenly, Nvidia found itself in a position not unlike that of a startled goldfish in a hurricane. Demand for its chips went…up. It now constitutes a significant portion of the entire market capitalization of, well, everything. (Which, if you think about it, is a rather unsettling thought. What if Nvidia became everything? The implications are…extensive.)

This series, dedicated to the rather fascinating, if slightly terrifying, phenomenon that is Nvidia for the Voyager Portfolio, has already covered the history and recent financial successes of this silicon behemoth. Today, we arrive at the final installment, examining Nvidia’s future plans and, more importantly, why many investors might not actually need to rush out and buy more shares. (It’s a bit like buying extra oxygen when you’re already breathing. Technically possible, but…redundant.)

The Relentless March of Infrastructure

Nvidia has been, shall we say, rather fortunate in attracting the attention of hyperscalers and other technologically advanced early adopters. These entities, driven by an insatiable appetite for processing power, have been acquiring Nvidia chips with the enthusiasm of squirrels hoarding nuts before a particularly harsh winter. This, naturally, has been quite beneficial for Nvidia’s sales and profits. (It’s a simple equation, really: demand + limited supply = increased revenue. Though, of course, the universe delights in making things needlessly complicated.)

The question, naturally, is whether this trend will continue. Nvidia, with a confidence bordering on the unsettling, believes it will. They point to three key “platform shifts” as the drivers of ongoing demand. First, accelerated computing has become something of a necessity, with companies fearing obsolescence if they fail to invest. Second, increasingly complex AI models require ever-increasing amounts of computing power – a demand Nvidia is, conveniently, well-positioned to meet. And finally, the rise of “agentic AI” – the idea that AI will eventually take over entire business processes without human intervention – represents the next stage of evolution. (One shudders to think what the quarterly earnings calls will be like when the AI is doing the talking. Probably very efficient, but lacking in human empathy.)

Nvidia estimates that AI infrastructure spending will increase from approximately $1 trillion currently to somewhere between $3 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030. Generative AI, agentic AI, robotics, and even the somewhat dubious claim that Moore’s Law is nearing its end all contribute to this potential growth. With generative AI token generation doubling every two months and users expanding into “physical AI” (whatever that actually means), the future, for Nvidia, appears…bright. (Though, of course, brightness is relative. A supernova is bright, but also rather destructive.)

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The Surprisingly Large Amount of Nvidia You Already Own

So, given all the positive developments surrounding Nvidia, you might be surprised to learn that the Voyager Portfolio has no intention of adding the company’s stock to its holdings. This isn’t because Nvidia is a bad investment, per se. It’s simply that most investors already have a significant amount of exposure to the company, indirectly, through mutual funds and ETFs. (It’s a bit like searching for your keys when you’re already holding them. A common occurrence, and deeply unsettling.)

Consider the following:

  • If you own a total stock market index fund (weighted by market capitalization), between 6% and 7% of your money is currently invested in Nvidia.
  • For investors in S&P 500 index funds, Nvidia has an even higher weighting – nearly 8%.
  • Several tech-focused ETFs have even higher concentrations of Nvidia stock. The Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT 2.16%) has over 17% of its assets in Nvidia. The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK 2.92%) is close behind with 15%.
  • ETFs that concentrate on semiconductor stocks specifically can have even higher concentrations of Nvidia stock. The Van Eck Semiconductor ETF (SMH 4.29%) currently has over 18% of its assets invested in Nvidia.

Why the Voyager Portfolio Remains Unburdened by Nvidia

The purpose of the Voyager Portfolio is to highlight companies that investors might not be familiar with and are unlikely to own. Nvidia, unfortunately, meets neither of those criteria. That doesn’t make it a bad investment, but it does make it unsuitable for this portfolio. And if you have a substantial portion of your money in index funds and ETFs, you might not need any additional exposure to Nvidia either. (It’s a bit like adding more water to a glass that’s already full. Inefficient, and potentially messy.)

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2026-02-04 20:12