A Most Interesting Speculation: Viking Therapeutics

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The modern world, alas, has become preoccupied with the merely corporeal. Obesity, a condition once relegated to kings and emperors, now threatens to engulf the masses. Yet, from this rather unseemly crisis emerges an opportunity – a veritable bonanza for those with the discernment to recognize it. The advent of GLP-1 agonists is not merely a medical breakthrough; it is a testament to the enduring human capacity to profit from vanity… and necessity.

Morgan Stanley, those meticulous chroniclers of capital, estimate a market of $150 billion by 2035. Such figures are, of course, merely projections, but one should never dismiss a well-calculated indulgence. It is, after all, far more profitable to anticipate excess than to attempt moderation.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently hold court, but to focus solely on the established players is to miss the exquisite drama unfolding beneath the surface. Observe, if you will, Viking Therapeutics (VKTX 1.70%). A mere $3.3 billion valuation, a trifle in the grand scheme of things, yet possessing a potential that is, shall we say,… intriguing.

The Virtue of Patience, and the Absence of Current Revenue

Some investors, those of a particularly unimaginative bent, may be deterred by the company’s lack of immediate returns. They demand instant gratification, a quality one finds more often in pastry shops than in the realm of true investment. Viking Therapeutics is still perfecting its elixirs, most notably VK2735 – a dual GLP-1 and GIP agonist, a rather sophisticated concoction, if I may say so. They are pursuing both an injectable and, more daringly, an oral version.

The injectable is in phase 3 trials, completion expected in 2027. The oral pill, a more ambitious undertaking, trails behind. The delay, however, is not necessarily a disadvantage. Time, after all, allows for refinement… and for competitors to stumble. The market, you see, is littered with the wreckage of premature triumphs.

A product may not grace the market until 2028, perhaps later. But consider this: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are already validating the long-term potential. Novo Nordisk’s recent foray into oral GLP-1 agonists demonstrates that the appetite for convenience – and profit – is insatiable. To ignore this trend is to mistake a fleeting fancy for a fundamental shift.

Clinical trials suggest VK2735 could be a formidable contender. A competitive landscape, naturally, is to be welcomed. It separates the truly exceptional from the merely adequate.

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A Valuation That Demands a Certain Audacity

A $3.5 billion market valuation carries a degree of risk, certainly. Drug development is, after all, a gamble. But to avoid risk entirely is to avoid life itself. The potential reward, however, is commensurate with the peril. One must occasionally flirt with disaster to achieve true magnificence.

Let us indulge in a modest calculation. Suppose the obesity drug market reaches a mere $100 billion by 2035 – a conservative estimate, I assure you – and Viking Therapeutics captures a modest 5% share. Novo Nordisk currently enjoys a valuation of 5 times its sales. Apply the same metric to Viking Therapeutics, and you arrive at a market capitalization of $25 billion – a return of over 7 times the current value in a mere nine years. A rather delightful prospect, wouldn’t you agree?

Perhaps, before that distant date, a larger entity – a Pfizer, perhaps, chastened by its own failed endeavors – recognizes the inherent value of Viking Therapeutics and makes a generous offer. Acquisitions, you see, are the natural order of things in this relentlessly competitive arena. A swift and profitable exit is always a pleasing alternative to prolonged struggle.

Therefore, a small investment in this $30-a-share stock, as part of a diversified portfolio, is not merely prudent; it is, dare I say, exquisitely sensible. The upside, my dear friends, is simply too tempting to resist.

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2026-02-04 02:53