Meta’s Gamble: A 2026 Forecast

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Meta Platforms. The name hangs in the air like a half-forgotten promise. They reported revenue of $59.9 billion for the last quarter of ’25, earnings of $8.88 a share. Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief. The stock’s up nine percent this year, a climb of 372 percent over the last three years. Numbers, just numbers. But numbers can lie, and they often do.

Here’s a prediction for 2026. It’s not a sunny one.

The Spending Never Sleeps

Throughout last year, Meta kept nudging up their capital expenditure forecast. Started with $60 to $65 billion. Ended up at $72 billion. They’re building data centers, buying servers, hoarding chips. All for this AI thing. It’s a fever dream fueled by venture capital and hope. Now, they’re talking $115 to $135 billion this year. I suspect that number is optimistic. Or a deliberate misdirection. Either way, it’s a lot of money. And money, like a stray dog, has a habit of biting the hand that feeds it.

They spent $28 billion in ’23. A steady climb since then. Zuckerberg’s gone all-in on AI, chasing this phantom of “personal superintelligence.” He’s sparing no expense. The company is printing cash – $44 billion in free cash flow last year. But profit isn’t the same as wisdom. And a full wallet doesn’t guarantee a future.

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This isn’t about growth. It’s about a gamble. A big one. They’re betting the farm on a technology that’s still more hype than reality. The market loves a good story, but stories have endings. And sometimes, the ending isn’t happy. Investors need to ask themselves a simple question: will all this spending actually pay off? Or are they just fueling a beautiful, expensive illusion?

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2026-02-02 18:32