
My aunt, bless her, called last week. She’d seen a headline about Netflix, and naturally, assumed it meant I was suddenly a financial wizard. She wanted to know if she should “buy the dip.” The dip. As if investing were some sort of casual swim. I tried to explain that “the dip” is just a polite way of saying “significant loss of value,” but she was already picturing herself on a yacht, funded by streaming royalties.
Netflix, you see, had a bit of a stumble. The stock price, after announcing perfectly respectable earnings, decided to take a vacation downwards. Almost 38% off its high. It’s funny, isn’t it? How we celebrate growth, but panic at the slightest hint of…reality. They still made money, a lot of it, but the market, in its infinite wisdom, decided to punish them for not being more profitable. It’s like being disappointed in a perfectly good sandwich because it doesn’t also fly.
They’re pinning a lot on advertising, which feels…desperate. Like adding a tip jar to a museum. “Please, enjoy the art, and also help us stay afloat.” Apparently, this ad revenue grew 2.5 times over the year. Management said so. I’m not sure what that actually means in real-world terms – probably just more ads for things I don’t need – but it sounds good on paper. And, let’s be honest, that’s what matters, isn’t it?
The thing is, they’re trying to convince us that this is all perfectly logical. That more ads, and a slightly improved operating margin (31.5% by 2026, up from 29.6%) justify the current price. It’s like saying a slightly less leaky roof makes the whole house a good investment. I suspect it’s just a story they tell themselves, and us, to avoid admitting that maybe, just maybe, we’ve reached peak streaming.
They’re saying the stock is “undervalued” now, trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 27. Which, according to the analysts, means if earnings grow by over 20% for the next four years, we could potentially double our money. Potentially. It’s the same promise you hear from every lottery ticket vendor. And, like a lottery ticket, it’s probably worth about what you paid for it. My aunt, meanwhile, is already planning her yacht party. I haven’t had the heart to tell her that yachts are surprisingly expensive to maintain. Or that Netflix, like most things, is ultimately just a distraction from the inevitable.
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2026-02-02 17:52