Bitcoin: A Ten-Year Itch

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Investing, as anyone who’s ever tried it will readily confirm (often whilst clutching a lukewarm beverage and staring into the middle distance), is fundamentally about exchanging present resources for the promise of future resources. It’s a rather curious habit, when you think about it. We’re essentially betting on the continued, and hopefully upward, trajectory of… well, everything. And as with all bets, there’s a non-trivial chance of ending up with slightly less than you started with. (Which, incidentally, is also true of most journeys involving public transport.) But occasionally, just occasionally, something genuinely interesting happens.

Over the last decade, a particular digital asset – Bitcoin, to be precise – has experienced a price appreciation that could politely be described as ‘significant’. (Approximately 22,000%, as of January 26th. Which is, statistically speaking, a lot.) The question, naturally, is whether this upward momentum will continue. My admittedly speculative prediction is that it might, potentially rising tenfold over the next ten years. (This prediction, it should be noted, comes with the standard disclaimer: past performance is no guarantee of future results. Especially in a universe governed by chaos theory and the unpredictable whims of market participants.)

Fulfilling the Digital Gold Narrative (Or, Why Shiny Things Still Matter)

On January 26th, Bitcoin’s market capitalization hovered around $1.7 trillion. A tenfold increase would bring that figure to $17 trillion by early 2036. Which, while not exactly pocket change, would represent a significantly lower annualized return than the 71% we’ve become accustomed to over the past decade. (A sobering thought for anyone who’s been contemplating early retirement based solely on cryptocurrency gains.) This would translate to a Bitcoin price of approximately $880,000. (Which, if you factor in inflation and the inevitable heat death of the universe, is probably a bargain.)

The rationale behind this prediction is rather straightforward, if you accept the premise that human beings have a peculiar fondness for shiny things. Gold, for millennia, has served as a store of value. (Mostly because it’s difficult to counterfeit and relatively inert. Although, given enough time and ingenuity, even that’s not entirely guaranteed.) The value of all above-ground gold is estimated at $35 trillion. To see Bitcoin reach half that value in ten years seems, at least to me, not entirely unreasonable. (Although, of course, ‘reasonable’ is a subjective term. Especially when discussing assets whose value is determined by collective belief.)

The only obstacle, if one can call it that, is convincing more individuals, companies, asset managers, and governments to view Bitcoin as a superior store of value. (Easier said than done, naturally. Convincing anyone of anything is remarkably difficult, even with irrefutable evidence. Especially when dealing with those in positions of authority.) Gold’s recent performance – a 99% increase in the last 24 months – suggests that Bitcoin still has some convincing to do. (It’s a bit like trying to explain the concept of irony to someone who doesn’t understand sarcasm.)

Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, sees Bitcoin fulfilling the ‘digital gold’ narrative as a key variable in its outlook. (Which, depending on your perspective, is either insightful analysis or optimistic speculation.)

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Set Up for Success in an Increasingly Digital World (Or, Why Bits and Bytes Might Be Better Than Bricks and Mortar)

Gold’s primary advantage is its longevity. It’s been a store of value for thousands of years. (Mostly because it’s heavy and difficult to move. A surprisingly effective deterrent to theft.) Bitcoin, however, offers several advantages. It’s more portable, verifiable, divisible, and resistant to censorship. (And, crucially, it doesn’t require a secure vault. Although, a robust digital security system is equally important.) Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million units, making it inherently scarce. (Unlike most fiat currencies, which can be printed into oblivion with alarming ease.)

The fact that Bitcoin is purely digital positions it well in a world increasingly dominated by technology, artificial intelligence, and the internet. (A world where physical objects are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Although, a good cup of coffee still holds considerable appeal.)

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2026-01-31 23:24