BigBear.ai: A Rather Wearisome Situation

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One gathers 2025 was a bit of a tumble for those invested in BigBear.ai. A rather precipitous drop, actually – 75% in March, if one is keeping score. The subsequent months, naturally, involved a good deal of jittering about. One almost expects it with these ventures, doesn’t one? A bit of drama to spice things up.

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2026 has offered a slight reprieve – a mere 11.8% uptick year-to-date. Charming, but hardly a cause for popping champagne. One wonders if regaining former glories is entirely within the cards. The question, of course, is whether one should venture a purchase at this juncture.

A Singular Sort of Artificiality

It appears BigBear.ai isn’t chasing the same digital butterflies as OpenAI or Anthropic. No large language models here, darling. Instead, they’ve focused on rather specialized applications for the defense and security sectors. A niche market, to be sure. One imagines it requires a certain… stoicism.

Their Trueface facial recognition software is, apparently, quite the marvel. Deployed at airports and such, it identifies individuals with alarming speed – under two milliseconds, they claim. Accuracy is, naturally, boasted at over 99%. One pictures a rather efficient, if slightly unsettling, process. It’s all terribly modern, isn’t it?

They also offer AI-powered edge computing, including something called ORION, used by the Department of Defense. A platform for “decision support,” they call it. Sounds dreadfully complicated. One suspects it’s remarkably similar to what Palantir Technologies is peddling, though they seem to manage the revenue side of things with a bit more panache.

Growth by Acquisition (and a Touch of Desperation)

Unlike Palantir, BigBear.ai hasn’t exactly been setting the world alight with financial growth. Perhaps a consequence of their specialized focus. Facial recognition is essential for border control, but most businesses would be perfectly content with a simple ID scanner. And while a secure communication platform is vital for a tank convoy, one doubts the average citizen will find themselves in such a predicament.

They’ve been acquiring companies – Ask Sage, a generative AI platform, and some assets from CargoSeer Ltd. – in a bid to boost revenue. A perfectly sensible strategy, one supposes, though rather lacking in originality. It appears management has a rather ambitious appetite for expansion, which brings us to a rather sticky point.

Kicking the Can (and Possibly the Shareholders)

On January 22nd, management attempted to amend the company’s Certificate of Incorporation to allow for the issuance of more shares. They’d already issued a considerable number – 436.6 million, if you’re counting – to fund acquisitions and reduce debt. They were nearing the existing 500 million share cap, naturally. The amendment would have doubled that limit. One begins to suspect a certain…resourcefulness.

CEO Kevin McAleenan, in a letter to shareholders, insisted this was necessary for “important acquisitions, product development, and strengthening the balance sheet.” A perfectly plausible explanation, of course. Though one suspects the primary motivation was avoiding actual profitability. Any additional share issuance would, naturally, dilute the holdings of existing shareholders. And they, it seems, were less than thrilled. The approval meeting was abruptly postponed, and proxy voting reopened. A clear indication, darling, that management was anticipating a rather decisive rejection.

While this temporary reprieve is gratifying for shareholders, it presents a rather significant problem for a company reliant on acquisition for growth. Investing in BigBear.ai at this moment appears, frankly, a trifle reckless. One suggests, with the utmost discretion, steering clear for the foreseeable future. It’s all rather tiresome, really.

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2026-01-31 05:33