Commvault’s Little Setback

Oh, Commvault. A rather dramatic tumble for the firm, wasn’t it? The market, it seems, had a bit of a fit after their latest earnings report. Down a third, they say? How terribly vulgar. One does wish people would maintain a sense of proportion. Record revenue, beating estimates… honestly, the fuss. It’s as if expecting a company to occasionally do well is some sort of outrageous novelty.

Nineteen percent revenue increase, you understand. A rather robust figure, even if one is accustomed to such things. Subscriptions, bless them, are doing nicely, up thirty percent. Annual recurring revenue, a rather useful concept, is also enjoying itself. Licenses, too, are showing a degree of enthusiasm. All perfectly adequate, really. Though, naturally, the City requires constant reassurance.

Earnings are up, of course, though the precise numbers seem to bore everyone. Adjusted earnings, too. One wonders if anyone actually reads these reports, or merely reacts to the ticker tape with the grace of a startled hippopotamus.

The stock had been… underperforming, shall we say, prior to this little episode. Down eighteen percent over the year? A positively glacial pace. Now, of course, it’s down forty-five percent. Fifty-five percent from its peak. One begins to suspect someone is deliberately trying to ruin a perfectly good company. Or, more likely, they simply haven’t the imagination to appreciate it.

A Forecast Slightly Off-Key

The problem, darling, isn’t that Commvault is failing. It’s that it isn’t soaring quite as spectacularly as the market demands. The revenue outlook, you see, was a smidge below expectations. A mere twenty-one to twenty-two percent growth for fiscal 2026. The analysts, predictably, threw a tantrum. As if a company can simply conjure revenue from thin air.

ARR growth is also, apparently, a cause for alarm. Eighteen percent. A perfectly respectable figure, but not quite the twenty-one percent the market craved. The operating margin, too, is down a trifle. Honestly, the nitpicking is exhausting.

Analysts are lowering their price targets, naturally. A perfectly predictable performance. Compression in the software industry, they murmur. Slowing growth. As if growth is a constant, rather than a rather elusive beast. Still, they overwhelmingly view it as a buy, with a median price target suggesting a doubling of the current price. The sheer optimism is almost touching. Almost.

A Dip Worth Considering?

The valuation, my dear, was the real issue. Seventy-four times earnings? A trifle excessive, even for a company with potential. This sell-off, however, has brought things back to something approaching sanity. One might even suggest it presents an opportunity.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rebound. Investors, after all, are rather fond of a bargain. The issue isn’t the growth expectations, you see. It’s the price. But after this little dip, it warrants another look. A decidedly discerning look, of course.

One must always remember, darling, that panic is rarely a sound investment strategy. And a little bit of turbulence is often a perfectly good time to pick up a bargain. Provided, naturally, one has the good sense to do so.

2026-01-31 01:34

A Forecast Slightly Off-Key

A Dip Worth Considering?

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