So, it turns out that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders are underwater. Not the kind of underwater where you’re sipping a piña colada in the Maldives, but the kind where you’re clutching your life jacket and wondering if the lifeboat is ever going to show up. According to Jim Bianco, the macro investment guru at Bianco Research, the Average Cost Basis for all ETF buyers since 2024 was a cool $90.2K. Fast forward to now, and BTC has slipped to $82.3K. Do the math, and you’ll find that these investors are down about 8.5%. Ouch. That’s like buying a designer handbag only to find out it’s last season’s model.
But hey, let’s not throw in the towel just yet. History, as they say, has a way of repeating itself-or at least rhyming. Back in September 2024, when BTC dipped below the ETF’s average purchase level, it consolidated before staging a comeback that would make a phoenix jealous. The same thing happened in early 2025 during the tariff-driven market dump. So, if history is any guide, we might be looking at another rebound, with a potential bottom forming below $90K. Cross your fingers, light a candle, and maybe sacrifice a small houseplant to the crypto gods.
Bianco Research chimes in with their data, showing the combined average purchase price for Strategy and spot BTC ETFs at $84.5K. Apparently, this level has been the crypto equivalent of a safety net, catching major drawdowns like a well-placed trampoline. Defending $84.5K is crucial, they say, to keeping the bullish market structure intact. Fall below that, and it’s like tripping on the stairs in front of your crush-embarrassing and potentially disastrous.
But let’s not forget the other players in this drama. The 30-day average of BTC demand growth has flipped negative for the first time since mid-2025. For a recovery to happen, ETFs need to start buying again. Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is over here saying the market won’t stabilize until the new Fed chair is confirmed and tested. Thanks, Tom. That’s about as reassuring as a weather forecast that says, “Maybe it’ll rain, maybe it won’t.” And let’s not even get started on Donald Trump’s plan to announce the new Fed chair pick. Because nothing says “market stability” like a Trump announcement.
Final Thoughts
- If BTC reclaims $84.5K, it’s like the plot twist in a rom-com where the couple finally gets together. Cue the applause.
- But if Tom Lee is right, and we’re in for a deeper drawdown, it’s more like the season finale of a drama series-lots of tension and no resolution.
So, what’s the takeaway? Bitcoin is like that friend who’s always either on top of the world or in the depths of despair. There’s never a dull moment, but you might want to keep a bottle of aspirin handy. And if you’re an ETF holder, maybe just close your eyes and think of the Maldives.
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2026-01-30 15:13