Tesla: A Bit of a Rollercoaster, Isn’t It?

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Right. Tesla. It’s been… a week. The earnings came out, and for a blissful moment, the stock actually went up. Honestly, I nearly had a lie-down. But then, naturally, it didn’t. It dipped. It wobbled. It’s down over 11% in a month. Which, let’s be honest, is just… Tesla. It’s always something. Units of Concern: 1. Number of Times I’ve Checked the Stock Today: Uncountable.

The whole thing feels a bit bifurcated, doesn’t it? Like, on the one hand, they’re talking about full self-driving subscriptions going up – 38% year-on-year! – and this Robotaxi thing, and even humanoid robots! Robots! It sounds like science fiction, frankly. But on the other hand… the actual numbers. Oh, the numbers.

Revenue down 3% year-on-year. Earnings per share down a whopping 60%. It’s enough to make you want to sell everything and invest in… I don’t know… ethically sourced alpaca wool. Which, admittedly, probably wouldn’t be much more volatile. But then I remembered I’m supposed to be a rational investor. Or at least pretending to be.

The Dreams of Software and Robots

The market initially seemed rather pleased with the software side of things, and I can see why. They’re really pushing this whole AI, software, and fleet-based revenue stream. It’s all very futuristic. They’re even talking about this Cybercab – a steering-wheel-less car! Honestly, the thought of a car without a steering wheel fills me with a low-level dread. What if it decides to take you somewhere you don’t want to go? But apparently, it’s supposed to ship in April. April! It feels… soon.

The Slightly Less Shiny Reality

But let’s be real. While they’re dreaming of robots, the actual car sales are… not great. Automotive revenue down 11% year-on-year. Total deliveries down 16%. And they’re planning to wind down production of the Model X and Model S. Which, let’s face it, are the slightly nicer ones. It’s like they’re admitting things aren’t quite as rosy as they’d like us to believe. Hours Spent Questioning Life Choices: 3.

And the guidance… or rather, the lack of guidance. No delivery numbers for 2026. Just a vague statement about “maximum capacity utilization” and “aggregate demand.” It’s like they’re saying, “We have no idea what’s going to happen, but we’re confident it will all work out somehow.” Which, as a strategy, is… optimistic, shall we say?

Oh, and the free cash flow. Down 30% year-on-year. And it’s likely to stay suppressed because they’re planning to spend a lot of money on AI infrastructure and manufacturing. Over $20 billion! More than double what they spent last year. It’s all very… ambitious. Number of Times I’ve Considered a Career Change: 7.

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So, here we are. Tesla is, essentially, betting the farm on these newer initiatives. Robotaxi, the Cybercab, the robots. And the energy storage business is doing nicely, which is good. 14.2 gigawatt-hours of storage deployed in Q4 – up 29% year-on-year. That’s something, at least.

But with the financials looking a bit wobbly and so much money being poured into these future projects, I’m hesitant to buy at the current price. The price-to-earnings ratio is around 389. 389! It feels… a bit much. The market has already priced in a successful Robotaxi rollout, rapid growth in software revenue, and a return to growth in auto sales. It’s a lot to ask, isn’t it?

So, for now, I think I’ll stay on the sidelines. It’s probably the sensible thing to do. Though, admittedly, “sensible” isn’t always the most exciting option. But then, excitement rarely leads to good investment decisions. Days Since Last Impulsive Purchase: 2. (It was a scented candle. Don’t judge.)

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2026-01-30 07:03