Archer Aviation: A Test of Nerves, Darling

One often hears pronouncements on the virtues of patience in matters of investment. A rather sensible notion, really. Mr. Buffett, if memory serves, observed that the market is adept at redistributing funds from the impetuous to those with a slightly longer fuse. Quite. One suspects a great many fortunes are built on the backs of those who simply cannot resist a flutter.

However, even the most stoic investor finds a certain… weariness creeping in after a prolonged period of watching a promising venture merely…exist. Archer Aviation (ACHR 3.88%), purveyors of electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft – or ‘air taxis,’ as they rather optimistically call them – provides a particularly good example. It’s a stock I’ve held, you see, and one has been cultivating a rather impressive degree of forbearance.

Waiting for a Lift-Off

Since its public debut in 2021, Archer has, shall we say, lacked momentum. Starting around ten dollars a share, it now hovers at a rather modest eight and twenty cents. The curious thing, of course, is that nobody is actually using these air taxis yet. No revenue, naturally, just a considerable expenditure of funds as they assemble the fleet and navigate the regulatory hurdles. They do, however, possess approximately two billion dollars in liquid assets – bolstered by a recent injection of six hundred and fifty million – which allows them to continue the charade, at least for the moment.

Archer, one must concede, is amongst the first to seriously attempt this. A certain first-mover advantage, as the business schools are so fond of saying. Revenue is projected to begin, tentatively, in the first quarter of 2026 – a modest thirty-two million for the year, but a start, I suppose. One doesn’t expect miracles, darling, merely a return on one’s investment.

A Few Favorable Winds

There are, naturally, a few glimmers of hope. The Midnight aircraft recently passed tests in Abu Dhabi, and the UAE appears inclined to approve commercial operations by the third quarter of 2026. Archer has an agreement to provide services there, which is… something. A deal with Serbia, allowing for the potential purchase of up to twenty-five aircraft, is equally encouraging, though one wonders if they’ve considered the local taxi fares.

Here in America, the Trump administration launched a pilot program to expedite the deployment of these advanced vehicles. A gesture, perhaps, but one appreciates the sentiment. Archer has secured key approvals from the FAA, though full commercial operation in the US isn’t expected until 2028. They’ve recently acquired Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles for a rather extravagant one hundred and twenty-six million dollars, intending it to serve as an operational hub and play a ‘key role’ in the 2028 Olympics. One trusts they’ve factored in the cost of polishing the brass.

Analysts, ever optimistic, maintain a median price target of thirteen dollars a share – a potential 56% return over the next twelve months. One suspects they’re simply trying to justify their existence. It remains, undeniably, a speculative play. A small position, nestled within a diversified portfolio, is perhaps advisable. But I maintain a cautious optimism. Even if it doesn’t soar this year, a little patience, one suspects, will eventually be rewarded. Though one does wish it would hurry up about it.

2026-01-29 21:12

Waiting for a Lift-Off

A Few Favorable Winds

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