The matter of Palantir (PLTR 5.04%) presents itself as a peculiar accounting. A surge, they call it – a verticality exceeding two thousand percent over three years. Yet, this ascent is punctuated by precipitous declines, at least ten separate instances of twenty percent erasure, a rhythm of gain and loss that suggests not mastery, but a precarious balancing act. One recalls the parable of the tightrope walker, perpetually on the verge of oblivion. Between the years 2021 and 2023, the stock descended into a darkness from which it barely emerged, a demonstration that this instrument is not for those who require the reassurance of predictable returns.
The valuation, as it is termed, is… expansive. A multiple of 388 times earnings, 116 times next year’s projections. These figures are not errors in calculation, but a reflection of expectations that defy conventional logic. And yet, one analyst, a Mr. Radke of Citi, maintains a ‘buy’ rating, suggesting that Palantir has, somehow, circumvented the established laws of financial gravity.
Citi’s Assessment: A Provisional Sanction
Mr. Radke, in a pronouncement that echoes faintly within the labyrinthine halls of Wall Street, has elevated his price target to $235. A potential gain of forty-two percent, measured against the closing price of the previous day. He argues that Palantir has ‘broken’ the models, the accepted formulas used to assess worth. The Rule of 40, a quaint attempt to quantify the quality of earnings, is deemed insufficient. It is as if the company exists outside the established parameters, a phantom entity operating by its own inscrutable rules.
The justification rests upon ‘vicious growth acceleration’ and ‘impressive margin expansion’. Terms that, upon closer inspection, seem less descriptive than evasive. The influx of capital into the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is cited as evidence of underlying strength. And, curiously, an acceleration of defense budgets, a perpetual motion machine of expenditure, is viewed as a positive catalyst. The analyst suggests a ‘ramping defense super cycle,’ a phrase that evokes not progress, but an endless, self-perpetuating loop. Growth of fifty-one percent in the government segment, seventy to eighty percent overall by 2026. These are not projections, but decrees issued from a distant, unknowable authority.
One suspects the analyst may be observing a genuine phenomenon. In the most recent quarter, revenue increased by sixty-three percent. But this is merely a symptom, a fleeting manifestation of a deeper, more unsettling trend. The U.S. commercial segment, driven by the aforementioned AIP, surged by one hundred and twenty-one percent. It now constitutes thirty-four percent of total revenue. AIP has become… successful. And, in a development that borders on the Kafkaesque, government agencies have begun to adopt the platform. The system is replicating itself, consuming its own creations.
Perhaps more telling is the ‘remaining performance obligation’ – a contractual commitment to future sales. This figure has increased by sixty-five percent, reaching $2.6 billion. A solid foundation, they say. But a foundation for what? For continued growth? Or for an even more elaborate and unsustainable structure?
Management has revised its forecast, projecting revenue growth of fifty-three percent, reaching approximately $4.4 billion. U.S. commercial revenue is expected to increase by at least one hundred and four percent, reaching $1.43 billion. These are not predictions, but affirmations. The system demands expansion, and expansion will occur.
As previously noted, this instrument is not for the faint of heart. For those with a tolerance for uncertainty, the prevailing winds of artificial intelligence and the endless cycle of defense modernization may present opportunities. But one should approach with caution. A small position, perhaps. A tentative foray into the unknown.
Dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy. Acquire fewer shares when prices are high, more when prices are low. A futile attempt to mitigate risk in a system that is inherently unpredictable. But a necessary ritual, nonetheless. A small act of defiance in the face of an overwhelming and incomprehensible force.
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2026-01-29 11:13