Eli Lilly, currently the most highly valued entity in healthcare – a figure nearing a trillion dollars – has enjoyed a predictable surge. The market, as it often does, has rewarded anticipation. Mounjaro and Zepbound, their GLP-1 offerings, are, undeniably, attracting attention. But the fervor surrounding Lilly obscures a simple truth: this is not a closed game.
To assume Lilly’s dominance is absolute is to misunderstand the nature of pharmaceutical development. Other companies are engaged in the same pursuit, and a prudent investor should not dismiss them simply because they lack the current sheen of popularity. Amgen, therefore, warrants closer inspection.
A Monthly Injection: The Case for MariTide
Amgen’s MariTide, currently in phase 3 trials, offers a potentially significant advantage: a monthly injection. Mounjaro and Zepbound require weekly administration. While the prospect of an oral GLP-1 is often touted, daily pills introduce a compliance issue that injectables, particularly those with extended intervals, may circumvent. The claim of a possible quarterly dose, if substantiated, would further solidify this advantage.
The preference for pills over injections is understandable, but convenience is not the sole determinant. If MariTide requires only four administrations per year, it could capture a substantial segment of the market, particularly among those averse to frequent injections. Clinical trials indicate comparable weight loss – around 20% over 52 weeks – to existing treatments. This is not a revolutionary result, but a solid one, and sufficient to compete.
Valuation and Potential Upside
Over the past five years, Amgen’s stock has risen modestly – a 34% increase. This relative underperformance, however, may present an opportunity. The current forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16 contrasts sharply with Eli Lilly’s multiple of 32. The market, it seems, is pricing in less optimism for Amgen, and that may be a mistake.
Amgen is not, by any measure, a cheap stock. But compared to the current valuation of Eli Lilly, it appears reasonably priced. If MariTide receives approval – a considerable ‘if’, naturally – the potential for upside is significant. The GLP-1 market is projected to exceed $150 billion within the next decade. There is ample room for multiple players, and to dismiss Amgen solely on the basis of Lilly’s current momentum would be imprudent. The task of a serious investor is not to follow the crowd, but to assess value, and that is precisely what this analysis attempts to do.
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2026-01-29 04:32