Intel: A Semiconductor Saga (and a Guidance Headache)

So, Intel. Intel reported earnings. Okay, fine. They beat expectations. Which, you’d think, would be good. But then you read the guidance. The guidance. It’s like they’re deliberately trying to lower expectations just enough to avoid actual responsibility. Sales were up, earnings were… present. But the first quarter? They’re projecting less than what analysts thought. Less! It’s just… inconsiderate. Like ordering a pastrami on rye and getting mostly rye.

The stock took a hit, naturally. A big hit. And people are acting surprised. It’s up 111% over the last year, which, honestly, feels… precarious. Like a Jenga tower built by someone who’s had too much coffee. What are we supposed to do with this? Just hold on and hope? Hope is not a strategy, people. It’s what you tell your aunt when she asks if you’re dating anyone.

AI and Foundries: A Complicated Relationship

They’re touting AI sales. Data center and AI segment up 8.9%. Great. Except, apparently, they couldn’t make enough chips to meet demand. Supply issues. Always supply issues. It’s like they’re actively avoiding maximizing profits. And they’re shifting production. Shifting! Like moving furniture around to make a room look less cluttered, but actually just making it harder to walk through.

They’re shipping chips made on this “18A” process. Sounds impressive, right? But then they admit the foundry business is losing a fortune. Ten point three billion dollars last year! It’s like running a charity disguised as a semiconductor manufacturer. And sales to third-party customers? Two hundred twenty-two million. Seriously? That’s barely enough to cover the coffee budget. They’re expecting double-digit growth in the next quarter, but frankly, I’m skeptical. It feels like they’re throwing numbers at the wall to see what sticks.

Margins are shrinking. They were at 37.9% in the fourth quarter, now they’re projecting 34.5%. And they’re blaming it on this “18A” process. Saying it’s a product mix issue. It’s always a “mix issue”. It’s like saying your soufflé fell because you used slightly older eggs. It’s deflecting blame! Are the yields bad? Are they making chips that just… don’t work very well? They won’t say. They never say!

So, here’s the deal. When they report earnings next time, I want answers. I want to know if this “18A” process is actually going to turn things around, or if we’re just going to keep hoping for the “14A” process. Because frankly, I’m starting to feel like I’m investing in a never-ending cycle of technological promises. And as a dividend hunter, I need results. Not potential. Not promises. Just… dividends. Is that too much to ask?

2026-01-29 03:52

AI and Foundries: A Complicated Relationship

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