Oil, Shadows, and a President Detained

The price of oil, you see, has descended from its recent fever dreams. A barrel of that West Texas Intermediate, once demanding a king’s ransom – a full one hundred and twenty dollars, if you recall June of ’22 – now languishes at half that sum. Brent crude, the dark, viscous offering from the North Sea and the sands of the Middle East, follows a similar, disheartening trajectory. One might expect, naturally, a corresponding gloom to descend upon the oil majors, those ponderous behemoths of industry. But, ah, the market… a creature of whims and contradictions.

A glut, you understand, has settled upon the world like a persistent fog. One point four billion barrels adrift on the water as of late December – a veritable flotilla of black gold, bobbing and waiting for a buyer. Twenty-four percent more than the usual melancholy accumulation for this time of year. It’s enough to make a statistician weep, and a broker consider a career in sheep farming. Yet, ExxonMobil, that titan of industry, has seen its share price ascend nearly thirteen percent this year – and we haven’t even fully shaken off the chill of January. Chevron, not to be outdone, follows close behind with a nearly ten percent rise. The S&P 500, that restless indicator, manages a paltry one percent. A curious outperformance, wouldn’t you agree? A whisper of something… amiss.

So, where might these shares drift from here? Let us peer into the murky depths, shall we? But be warned, the waters are filled with strange currents and even stranger fish.

Maduro’s Capture and the Rise of Expectations

The source of this peculiar buoyancy? Venezuela, naturally. Or, rather, the recent… relocation of its president, Nicholas Maduro, by the American military on the third of January. It seems investors, in their boundless optimism, believe access to Venezuela’s oil reserves – a staggering nineteen point four billion barrels, no less – is now within reach. A fifth of the world’s proven reserves, you understand! Enough to fuel a thousand empires, or at least keep a few yachts afloat. It’s a grand vision, isn’t it? Though, one suspects, built on a foundation of sand and wishful thinking.

The Trump administration, it is suggested, might grant these oil giants special privileges, access to those coveted oilfields. Both ExxonMobil and Chevron possess the necessary refineries on the Gulf Coast, capable of handling the heavy, sour blend that Venezuela produces. Chevron, one notes, already has a foothold there. It’s all terribly convenient, isn’t it? A carefully orchestrated ballet of power and profit. Though, I’ve seen more graceful maneuvers performed by a drunken bear.

The Rebuilding of a Ruined Kingdom

But should this be sufficient justification for investment, even with oil prices languishing in the depths? Alas, it is not so simple. Venezuela’s oil industry, you see, is in a state of advanced decay. Years of neglect, compounded by the questionable decisions of Mr. Chavez and, subsequently, Mr. Maduro, have left it a crumbling edifice. Rebuilding it, analysts claim, will require years of investment – ten billion dollars annually, at a minimum – and a stable security environment. A tall order, wouldn’t you say? Particularly when the country resembles less a nation and more a particularly chaotic puppet show.

At present, neither prospect appears particularly secure. And adding more oil to an already overflowing market will, inevitably, drive prices even lower. Investing in these oil producers based on the Venezuelan fantasy, therefore, strikes me as… imprudent. A wait-and-see approach, I believe, is the more sensible course. Observe the currents, study the shadows, and prepare for the inevitable, unpredictable storm. For in the world of oil, as in life, appearances are often deceiving, and the most promising ventures are frequently built on the shifting sands of hope and delusion.

2026-01-28 16:52

Maduro’s Capture and the Rise of Expectations

The Rebuilding of a Ruined Kingdom

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