D-Wave: Quantum Leap or Quantum Lunacy?

Okay, let’s talk quantum computing. It’s the future, supposedly. Like, if the future involved a lot of very cold computers and the potential to solve problems that would make your calculator spontaneously combust. The hype is real, and investors are throwing money at anything with “quantum” in the name. Which, as someone who looks at spreadsheets for a living, makes me deeply suspicious. It’s like the dot-com boom, but with more superconducting magnets.

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS +3.96%) is one of those companies riding the wave. Its stock has done more looping than a Six Flags rollercoaster, bouncing from four bucks to forty-six in the last year. Which, let’s be honest, is either brilliant engineering or a really good marketing department. Or both. It’s the tech world, after all.

Right now, it’s hovering somewhere in the middle. And while there’s a temptation to “buy the dip” – because, Wall Street – I’m politely declining. I wouldn’t touch this stock with a ten-foot pole. It’s like being offered a free timeshare. Sounds good in the pitch meeting, but you know you’ll regret it.

All Hat, No Cattle (and Possibly No Qubits)

McKinsey says the quantum computing market could be $100 billion by 2035. Which is great. If you’re McKinsey. And if that prediction holds true. A lot can happen between now and 2035. My grandma predicted the Cubs would win the World Series for 70 years, and she was only right once. Predictions are tricky.

D-Wave is doing something called “quantum annealing.” Basically, it’s not trying to find the perfect answer, just a really, really good one. Which is kind of like my approach to choosing what to wear in the morning. Close enough is good enough. It’s a pragmatic approach, I respect it. But it’s also…different. Most of the big players are going for the full “gate-model” quantum computer, which is like building a Formula One car while D-Wave is tinkering with a really souped-up golf cart.

Now, they’re trying to do both. Because, apparently, hedging your bets with two fundamentally different technologies is a solid business strategy. It’s like ordering both pizza and salad. You’re covering all your bases, but you’re also probably going to be disappointed with one of them.

Here’s the thing: the financials. They’re… modest. Analysts are predicting around $40 million in revenue for 2025, maybe $78 million in 2026. Meanwhile, IBM has already made over a billion dollars in quantum-related revenue. And IonQ is doing more than double D-Wave’s sales. It’s like showing up to a gunfight with a water pistol. You’re enthusiastic, but… unprepared.

Lofty Hopes and a Seriously High Price Tag

D-Wave’s market cap is $9.6 billion, which gives it a forward price-to-sales ratio of over 126. Let that sink in. That’s… optimistic. It’s like pricing your lemonade stand at the same level as Coca-Cola. You might get a few curious customers, but you’re not going to be in business for long.

Can they justify it? Honestly, no. Quantum computing is still in its infancy. Any growth projections are based on a lot of wishful thinking and crossed fingers. And they’re competing with everyone from tiny startups to trillion-dollar tech giants. It’s a crowded space, and D-Wave is bringing a spork to a knife fight.

The stock dipped as low as $4 last year, which tells you something. There’s not a lot of fundamental support here. If investors lose faith in the long-term story, this stock could fall faster than a politician’s approval rating. I’m not saying it will fall, but I’m also not betting against it. Maybe, maybe, if the price comes down significantly, it might be worth a speculative look. But not at the current price. I have a mortgage to pay, you know?

2026-01-28 14:42

All Hat, No Cattle (and Possibly No Qubits)

Lofty Hopes and a Seriously High Price Tag

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