Darling, Bitcoin is courted by the FOMC spotlight like a debutante who forgot her gloves-fretful, ever so theatrical, and utterly unconvinced by certainty.
Rates on Hold, and Humour on Hold Too?
The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, with the federal funds rate lounging in the 3.5% to 3.75% corridor. A pause would cap three consecutive cuts late last year, a dalliance that briefly had risk assets-Bitcoin included-fluttering with a whisk of optimism.
Yet the momentum has since fizzled. Bitcoin hovers around $87,780, roughly 30% below its dazzling all‑time highs of the past year.
Ali Martinez, our market wit on X (formerly Twitter), reminds us Bitcoin’s FOMC history is less a fairy tale and more a cautionary anecdote. January rate-cut odds are a mere 2.8%, suggesting meaningful easing is not exactly on the menu. In short, volatility rather than upside tends to be the house guest around these meetings.
Looking back at 2025, seven of eight FOMC decisions were followed by notable Bitcoin declines. January slid 27%; March fell 14%; June 8%; July 6%; September 7%; October 29%; and December 9%. The lone polite exception was May, when Bitcoin briefly danced up about 15% after the decision.
Bitcoin Edges Toward a Delicate Threshold
From a technical and on‑chain angle, BitBull notes Bitcoin has slipped into what she calls a key on‑chain decision zone.
Today, Bitcoin trades near the Active Investor Mean, about $87,500, the approximate break-even for many active buyers. Pressure builds on both sides. Above that level, the short‑term holder cost basis sits near $96,500, meaning many recent buyers are already underwater.
Consequently, any upward move toward that zone could meet selling pressure as traders exit at smaller losses. On the downside, the True Market Mean around $80,700 has historically marked the boundary between a routine correction and something more-structural, darling, if you must know.
Further below, the realized price near $56,000 suggests long‑term holders remain firmly in the black and largely unshaken by the latest gusts of volatility.
BitBull concludes that if Bitcoin can keep support above $87,500, active capital is defending its corner and the broader market strength remains intact. A sustained break below that level could open the door to around $80,700.
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2026-01-28 11:10