Now, I reckon I’ve been watchin’ these market shenanigans for a spell, and I’ve seen a heap of companies come and go. Amplitude, that product analytics firm – went public back in ’21, and, like a lot of these newfangled software concerns, it had a bit of a tumble when the world decided to pull in its britches. Folks stopped spendin’ quite so freely on these digital doodads, and Amplitude felt the pinch, naturally.
But, bless their hearts, they didn’t just sit there and wait for the dust to settle. They’ve been churnin’ and buildin’, addin’ new features and acquirin’ other companies. And now, they’re dabblin’ in this here “artificial intelligence” – claimin’ it’ll help their customers figure out what their own customers are up to. Seems a bit like lookin’ in a mirror to find yourself, if you ask me, but these young whippersnappers swear by it.
Now, I predicted last year that Amplitude would be a winner in 2025. I was, shall we say, a tad optimistic. The stock did inch up a bit – 9.8%, to be precise – but it didn’t quite keep pace with the S&P 500. It’s a lesson, I suppose, that even a seasoned observer can be fooled by the smoke and mirrors of Wall Street. Still, I’m not one to abandon a good story.
Getting a stock to take off is a tricky business, like tryin’ to herd cats. But I’m seein’ some momentum buildin’ for Amplitude. And, I reckon, 2026 might just be its year. Let me tell you why.
The Fundamentals are Stirrin’
After all this buildin’ and addin’, Amplitude is finally startin’ to grow at a decent clip. In the last quarter, revenue rose 16% to $347 million. And they’ve got $391.9 million in future commitments, showin’ folks are signin’ longer contracts. That’s a good sign – means they’re gettin’ comfortable with what Amplitude offers.
They’re also addin’ features like this “AI visibility” – lets marketers see how their brand looks in these AI search results. And they’ve got “web experimentation” – lets marketers run tests three times faster without botherin’ the fellas who actually write the code. Seems like everybody’s lookin’ for a shortcut these days.
They already count 27% of the Fortune 500 as customers – that’s a hefty number. And these new features should help them squeeze a bit more revenue out of those big boys, and attract a few new ones besides. They’re considered the leader in product analytics, with Forrester and G2 givin’ them high marks.
The Price Seems Right, For Now
Amplitude is tradin’ at a price-to-sales ratio of just 4. That’s a bargain, if you ask me, for a small-cap cloud software company that’s startin’ to pick up steam. They’re almost breakin’ even, which is normal in this line of work.
Wall Street analysts are expectin’ a modest 14% growth in 2026. That leaves plenty of room for a surprise, considerin’ their generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) revenue grew 18% last quarter. Seems they’re bein’ cautious, which, in my experience, is usually a good sign.
With a market cap of $1.4 billion, a double or triple in value ain’t out of the question if they can keep up that high-teens revenue growth. It’s a gamble, of course, like most things in this world. But I reckon it’s a gamble worth considerin’.
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2026-01-28 06:32