Sirius’s Slow Fade

Sirius XM Holding, a concern once touted as the future of automotive entertainment, experienced a rather pedestrian decline in 2025 – a fall of 12.3% against the general market’s boisterous advance. Not a catastrophe, of course, but a performance that suggests a certain…listlessness. One suspects Warren Buffett, a shareholder of some consequence, is not entirely displeased with the distraction; a small leak in the portfolio, easily absorbed.

The company itself managed to exceed its own modest expectations, a feat rarely celebrated in polite society. Revenue and profits, while not exactly soaring, were at least respectable. Yet, the underlying trend remains stubbornly downward. Subscribers, like moths to a dying flame, continue to drift away. A most inconvenient truth.

A Triumph of Modest Failure

Sirius predicted, with a confidence bordering on delusion, revenues of $8.5 billion. They achieved $8.525 billion. A rounding error, really. EBITDA, too, experienced a similar, negligible uplift. One imagines the celebratory champagne was rather dilute. Free cash flow, however, did improve, though largely due to a reduction in capital expenditure – a temporary reprieve, like a patient delaying the inevitable visit to the surgeon.

The decline in self-pay subscribers – a mere 1.3% – is, perhaps, the most telling statistic. A slow bleed, rather than a dramatic hemorrhage. The company is attempting to stem the flow with various contrivances – a renewed contract with Howard Stern (a considerable expense, one suspects) and a new, lower-cost, ad-supported tier. Whether this will ignite a resurgence remains to be seen. One might compare it to applying leeches to a dying patient – a desperate measure, at best.

Cheap, But Not Necessarily Cheerful

The stock, at 5.6 times free cash flow, appears…affordable. Though saddled with a rather substantial debt of $10 billion. A precarious position, to say the least. One wonders if the market perceives Sirius as a company merely navigating temporary headwinds, or one facing a long, slow decline into irrelevance.

The past two years of revenue decline may simply be a post-COVID hangover, a consequence of the cyclical nature of automotive sales. Sirius’s subscriber base is heavily reliant on pre-installed trials in new vehicles. A fragile foundation, to be sure.

But it is also possible that consumer habits are changing. The proliferation of entertainment options – streaming services, podcasts, audiobooks – has fragmented attention spans. Sirius, a relic of a bygone era, is struggling to compete. The success of the new, ad-supported tier will be crucial. If it can attract a new wave of subscribers, it may yet survive. If not, it will fade quietly into the static.

2026-01-27 16:52

A Triumph of Modest Failure

Cheap, But Not Necessarily Cheerful

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