Cryptocurrency Declines: A 2026 Forecast

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The collective value of all cryptocurrencies currently hovers around $3.1 trillion, a figure that, when viewed against the vastness of the universe, is simultaneously impressive and utterly meaningless. It’s down 29% from its peak in late 2024, which, in the grand scheme of things, is about as significant as a particularly enthusiastic dust bunny. Even Bitcoin, that venerable digital patriarch, has experienced a decline of 28% from its high. But let’s be clear: it’s the more… enthusiastically speculative end of the market that’s feeling the pinch. (One might ask, of course, what constitutes “enthusiastically speculative.” The answer, naturally, involves a complex algorithm incorporating the price of tea in China, the migratory patterns of the Lesser Spotted Newt, and the average number of times someone Googles “Is this a good idea?”)

Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, those digital embodiments of internet whimsy, have fared particularly poorly. They declined by 61% and 66% respectively in 2025. But those numbers, while alarming to anyone who invested their life savings, are merely previews of a more substantial gravitational pull downwards. They’re also, if we’re being honest, rather predictable. (Predictability, of course, is a relative term. Predicting the weather next Tuesday is far more reliable than predicting the future of a digital asset based on a meme.)

I foresee further declines, at least 50%, for both in 2026. Let’s delve into the reasons, shall we? It’s not a matter of malice, you understand, merely the inevitable consequence of… well, everything.

Dogecoin’s Endless Supply: A Lesson in Infinite Regress

Dogecoin began in 2013, the brainchild of two individuals inspired by the Doge meme. Their intention, they claimed, was to inject a bit of levity into the often-serious world of cryptocurrency. It was, in essence, a digital joke. (A joke, it turns out, that a surprising number of people took rather seriously. The human capacity for self-deception is truly remarkable.) In 2021, it briefly attained a market capitalization exceeding $90 billion, surpassing many established companies in the S&P 500. This, naturally, raised a few eyebrows. (And prompted a frantic re-evaluation of the meaning of “value” among financial analysts.) Unfortunately, this ascent wasn’t based on any tangible utility, but on the rather precarious assumption that someone, somewhere, would be willing to pay more for it than the previous owner.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, played a significant role in this frenzy, with a series of promotional posts and even an appearance on Saturday Night Live. However, it soon became apparent that he lacked a concrete plan for creating actual value. When the buying frenzy subsided, Dogecoin plummeted by over 90%. (A stark reminder that hype, while effective in the short term, is a poor substitute for substance.)

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Currently, Dogecoin isn’t widely accepted as a form of payment, nor does it function as a reliable store of value. These are demand-side issues, certainly, but the supply side presents an even more fundamental problem. Dogecoin is “mined” – a process involving powerful computers solving complex problems to validate transactions. Miners receive new tokens as a reward. While there’s a limit of 5 billion new tokens mined annually, there’s no end date. The supply will grow… indefinitely. (Imagine a bathtub with the tap permanently turned on. Eventually, it will overflow. The same principle applies, albeit with more complex mathematics.) This constant dilution will erode the value of each token over time. I predict a retest of its 2022 low of $0.05, representing a 58% decline from its current price.

Shiba Inu: Returns Diminishing in the Rearview Mirror

Shiba Inu emerged in 2020, created by an anonymous developer inspired by Dogecoin’s success. The goal? A similar cryptocurrency, but with more functionality. While Dogecoin operates on its own blockchain, Shiba Inu was built on the Ethereum network, leveraging existing infrastructure. (A sensible decision, one might think. Building on a solid foundation is generally a good idea. Unless, of course, the foundation is itself unstable, which is always a possibility.) The project initially enjoyed a remarkable surge, soaring by 45,278,000% in 2021. (A figure so large it almost ceases to have meaning. It’s roughly equivalent to the number of grains of sand on a particularly large beach.) A perfectly timed $3 investment could have yielded over $1 million. However, the token struggled to attract anyone beyond speculative investors, and that’s not enough to sustain long-term growth.

Currently, only 1,115 businesses accept Shiba Inu as payment (according to Cryptwerk). It hasn’t proven itself as a store of value either, failing to reach a new high in almost five years. To exacerbate matters, with 589.2 trillion tokens in circulation, it suffers from a significant supply problem. (A rather large number of tokens, even by cryptocurrency standards. It’s like trying to find a specific grain of sand on that aforementioned beach.)

The 2021 speculative bubble has burst, and demand from other sources remains conspicuously absent. Shiba Inu has plummeted 91% from its all-time high. A recovery seems unlikely unless it discovers a legitimate use case capable of attracting new investors. (A tall order, to say the least. Finding a needle in a haystack would be a simpler task.) As a result, I anticipate a further 50% decline in value during 2026.

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2026-01-27 07:12