Intel: Foundry Fever Dream or Dividend Gold?

Okay, let’s get one thing STRAIGHT. Intel (INTC 17.15%)… they’ve been building this foundry, this gleaming, silicon-soaked hallucination, and hoping somebody, ANYBODY, would just… show up. Like waiting for Godot in a cleanroom suit. Years of capital expenditure, a frantic race to shrink transistors until they’re practically quantum… and for what? The 18A process is churning out Panther Lake CPUs for their own internal consumption. Fine. But a self-licking ice cream cone doesn’t pay the dividend, people. It just… melts.

They’ve snagged a few deals, whispers of Microsoft and Amazon needing custom silicon. Good. But the details are shrouded in more secrecy than a back-alley arms deal. Essentially ALL the foundry revenue is coming from… themselves. Internal transfers. It’s like a mob boss laundering money through his own businesses. It LOOKS like activity, but it’s not exactly a sustainable model. The stock is teetering on the brink, and I’m staring into the abyss, hoping for a signal.

Rumors of Apple sniffing around the 18A process? Now THAT’S a shot of adrenaline. A big, juicy Apple contract would be like finding a winning lottery ticket taped to the bottom of your coffee cup. But even that’s a year away, maybe more. Tan, that steely-eyed CEO, says the days of “blank checks” are OVER. Customers need to put skin in the game FIRST. Smart. But it also ratchets up the pressure. They’re demanding commitments, and I’m demanding results.

This year is EVERYTHING. Intel NEEDS to land some major foundry customers for the 14A process. Otherwise, this whole thing… this grand, expensive experiment… could go up in smoke. I’m talking a full-scale meltdown, folks. And a dividend cut. DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT.

Holding Back the Flood

They’re facing a supply shortage, naturally. It’s always something. Yields are problematic, tool purchases are lagging… the usual Silicon Valley SNAFU. The Intel 7 process, ancient history in chip time, is still hogging capacity. And the 18A? Ramping up… slowly. It’s like watching molasses flow uphill.

But here’s the kicker: they’re being DISCIPLINED with the 14A. “What we’re holding back on is 14A because 14A is really linked to foundry customers,” says CFO Zinsner, sounding like a Bond villain explaining his master plan. “…it does not make sense to build out significant capacity there until we know that we have the customers that will accept that demand.” Sensible? Absolutely. But also… terrifying. If they don’t get those customers, the whole operation is… unstable. A house of cards built on sand.

The good news? Intel claims they’re confident of landing some wins this year. They’re releasing a “version 0.5” of the process design kit. Sounds exciting, right? Risk production by 2027, volume production by 2028. But it all depends on… you guessed it… customer demand. It’s a vicious cycle. A screaming, swirling vortex of uncertainty.

Tan expects firm commitments to start rolling in later this year. “Engagements with potential external customers on Intel 14A are active.” Active? Is that all you’ve got? I need concrete assurances, dammit! I need a signal that this isn’t just another pipe dream.

Intel Has 2026 to Make It Work

The fate of Intel’s foundry business will be decided in the next year. One big customer, a hyperscaler or Apple, could validate the whole operation. It’s a high-stakes gamble. A desperate roll of the dice.

The industry backdrop is… interesting. TSMC is struggling to keep up with the AI boom. Opportunities abound. But Intel needs to capitalize. The 18A process is powering the new Panther Lake CPUs. A successful launch would be a good sign. A beacon of hope in the darkness.

For Intel, winning customers BEFORE ramping up production is critical. It’s a bold strategy. Risky, even. But if they can pull it off, not only will foundry revenue soar, but the stock… the stock could actually move. And that, my friends, is what I’m here for. The dividends. The sweet, glorious dividends. And maybe, just maybe, a little bit of sanity in this insane world.

2026-01-26 16:44

Holding Back the Flood

Intel Has 2026 to Make It Work

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