XRP: A Cautionary Tale

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Behold, the pathetic state of XRP. Lingering around $1.89-a mere breath above the abyss, one might say-it postures as stability, a deceptive calm. But underneath, dear reader, a darkness stirs. And it is not a new darkness, not a dramatic upheaval, but the unsettling quiet of… nothing happening.

Just recently, the chart presented a fleeting flicker of hope, a bullish signal that, in saner times, would have prompted a respectable bounce. But XRP? It barely registered a tremor. A concerning apathy, wouldn’t you agree?

A Divergence Ignored: The Universe Yawns

From the tail end of December until the bleakness of January 20th, the XRP price dared to form a “hidden bullish divergence” – a phrase, let us be frank, that sounds far more impressive than it ultimately proved to be. The price, in its infinite wisdom, made a higher low, while the Relative Strength Index, that fickle instrument, printed a lower low.

Normally, this signals a weakening of the sell-off, a glimmer of impending buyer revival. A bounce, perhaps, a moment of respite. But alas, it did not happen. Not even a polite cough of upward momentum.

XRP merely… remained. Like a forgotten painting in a dusty attic.

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This failure, you see, is almost more damning than a direct rejection. It whispers of a profound lack of faith, a market too jaded for even the simplest of bullish signals. Demand, it seems, is not merely absent – it’s holding a silent vigil somewhere else.

The ever-present wedge structure stubbornly predicts a possible 25% plummet should support finally surrender. And with buyers seemingly content to observe from a safe distance, while sellers quietly reassert themselves, XRP teeters on the brink of a rather undignified collapse.

One asks oneself, naturally… what precisely will become of XRP when the sellers finally decide to return in earnest?

The Empty Coffers: ETFs and Holders

The answer, my friends, lies in the flow of funds – or, in this case, the lack thereof.

For the first time in what feels like an eternity, XRP-related ETF products have registered net outflows. A paltry $40.5 million departed during the week ending January 23rd. After a prolonged period of inflows, it’s a rather pointed statement, wouldn’t you say?

These ETF flows, you see, are not the whims of retail investors. They represent the deliberate movements of institutional capital-which is to say, serious money. When that money suddenly decides it prefers elsewhere, it’s rarely a good omen.

And the on-chain data… Oh, the on-chain data. It corroborates this unsettling narrative.

The XRP Hodler Net Position Change metric, a convoluted phrase for “how much XRP long-term holders are buying or selling,” has flattened and is now… inching downward. On January 20th, these stalwart believers held roughly 232.1 million XRP. By January 24th, that had dwindled to a measly 231.55 million XRP.

Hardly a mass exodus, naturally. But it is certainly not a rush to accumulate. They’re hesitant, unconvinced. And who can blame them?

When ETF demand evaporates and long-term holders refrain from adding to their holdings, well, bounces become rather… problematic.

The Whales Stir, and Not For the Better

While the hopeful and the foolish deliberated, a select few took decisive action.

Wallets containing between 10 million and 100 million XRP began to discreetly reduce their positions. On January 18th, they held approximately 11.16 billion XRP. By the latest count, that figure had shrunken to roughly 11.07 billion XRP.

That represents a reduction of around 90 million XRP – roughly $170 million worth of distributed assets, at the current rate. One suspects these whales possess insights the rest of us do not.

This selling pressure, quite naturally, explains why XRP has stubbornly resisted any significant upward movement. The risk, as any observant cynic will note, is now painfully clear.

A daily close below $1.85-$1.86 would rupture wedge support and unleash the bearish hounds. The initial target? A rather uninspiring $1.70. Should momentum accelerate – and one dares to hope it will, for the sake of accelerating drama – a deeper descent towards $1.42 beckons. Almost, but not quite, achieving the ominous 25% breakdown prediction.

On the off chance of a reprieve, XRP must reclaim $1.98. A fleeting moment of relief, perhaps, but without a genuine influx of buyers, it will likely prove to be nothing more than a desperate gasp before the inevitable. The imbalance, as they say, is… striking. There is selling. There are no buyers.

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2026-01-25 14:56