Buffett’s Shuffle: Amex Takes the Lead

Buffett’s gone quiet, passed the reins. Doesn’t mean the game’s changed, just the player holding the cards. Greg Abel’s inherited a portfolio built on patience, on seeing value where others see only numbers. But even patience has its limits. And some holdings, well, they’re just…comfortable.

He’s been shedding stock, that’s for sure. Hundreds of billions gone, like smoke in a back alley. Apple took a good chunk of that. Not because it’s a bad company, mind you. Just because it got…expensive. A pretty face asking for too much money.

And while Abel’s sorting through the wreckage, one holding’s been quietly climbing. A steady hand in a rigged game. It’s enough to make you wonder if we’re about to see a shift in the power structure at Berkshire.

Picking Apple profits

Back in ’16, Buffett bet big on Apple. Thirty billion, a king’s ransom. Looked good then, a steal even. The stock was practically begging to be bought. He got in, and for a while, it was a beautiful thing. Tim Cook sent him thank you notes, probably. By the end of ’23, Apple was half of Berkshire’s marketable holdings. A golden goose.

But even golden geese lose their luster. The price climbed, and climbed, and climbed. Buffett started trimming the fat, selling off chunks of the holding. Simple math, really. The price got ahead of itself. The intrinsic value, that elusive ghost, had vanished into the mist.

He bought when it was a diamond in the rough. When eleven bucks bought you a piece of the future. By the time he’d finished loading up, it was costing him mid to high teens. The game changes, see? And a smart player knows when to walk away.

Now, Apple’s trading at thirty-three times earnings. Thirty times forward. The company’s still making money, sure, but the growth is slowing. Analysts predict eleven percent a year. That’s a pretty price for a slowing train. So he sold. It’s what you do when the music stops.

Even after the haircut, Apple remained Berkshire’s biggest holding. For now. But the market has a way of rewriting stories. And the next chapter might not feature the same characters.

The forever holding that could take over as Berkshire’s top stock

If Abel keeps thinning the Apple orchard, there’s one holding poised to reclaim the top spot. It’s been there before, quietly gathering strength. Berkshire hasn’t bought a share since ’95, but it hasn’t been on the chopping block either. And in the last three years, it’s been on a steady climb. A slow burn, but a burn nonetheless.

I’m talking about American Express. It’s a survivor. A reliable friend in a fickle world. And despite the recent gains, it still looks undervalued. Something Greg Abel and his team will likely hold onto for a long, long time.

Back in ’95, Berkshire’s stake was worth two billion. Five percent of the total market cap. Today, that same stake is worth fifty-four billion. Still roughly five percent. A comfortable level of exposure. A steady hand on the tiller.

The forward P/E has climbed to twenty, thanks to the stock’s performance. But it doesn’t look outrageous. Amex is targeting the high-end consumer, the small business owner. The Platinum card, with its raised annual fees. Customers are flocking to it. A refresh, a new coat of paint. And those customers spend money. More money than average.

Interest income is still a small part of the business. Amex offers charge cards, requiring full payment each month. Less prone to regulation, to the whims of politicians. A quiet strength.

The product refresh, combined with steady growth, should drive top-line growth. Share repurchases, consistent margins, double-digit earnings-per-share growth. It justifies the valuation. So while Berkshire’s been shedding Apple, there’s every reason to hold onto Amex. It could push it to the top of the portfolio. A quiet takeover, in a world of noise.

2026-01-25 13:55

Picking Apple profits

The forever holding that could take over as Berkshire’s top stock

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