Microsoft: Dip or Danger?

Right. Microsoft. It’s down over 10% in three months, which, let’s be honest, is enough to induce a mild panic. I mean, is it a ‘buying opportunity’ as they say, or a flashing red warning sign? The earnings report is due Wednesday. And honestly, the suspense is… considerable. I’ve made a list. It helps.

Things to worry about: Global economic instability.
Things to worry about more: My portfolio.
Things to worry about even more: The fact that I keep checking my portfolio.

Apparently, everyone is clamoring for Azure, Microsoft’s cloud thing. Which is good. Very good. Demand is ‘surging’ they say. Which, translated from financial jargon, means ‘people are actually buying it.’ Their first quarter results were… well, spectacular, apparently. I’m trying not to get too excited. I’ve been burned before. The backlog is huge – nearly $400 billion. That’s a lot of… back things. It’s reassuring, I suppose. Like a really, really big safety net. But safety nets have been known to fray.

The question, of course, isn’t just what’s coming in, but what’s going out. Capital expenditure. It’s a phrase that always sounds slightly threatening. They spent nearly $35 billion in the last quarter. Thirty-five billion. I spent that much on groceries last year. Okay, maybe not. But it feels like it. They’re promising even more spending in the future. Which means… less profit? I’m trying to stay positive. I really am. It’s just that profit is, you know, kind of important.

They’re blaming the lower margins on ‘investments in AI’. Which is the new excuse for everything, isn’t it? Like, ‘Sorry I forgot your birthday, I was investing in AI.’ It’s a convenient explanation. They are generating a lot of cash flow, though – over $25 billion. Which is… a lot. I’m starting to think maybe I should buy some. But then again… what if it goes down further? The agonizing indecision is almost unbearable.

So, is it a buy? Honestly, I’m not sure. The price-to-earnings ratio is about 33. Which sounds… expensive. Everything sounds expensive these days. It feels like a lot of the AI excitement is already priced in. Which means… no easy wins. I suppose I could wait for a better entry point. But what if it never comes? The market is a cruel mistress. I’ve made another list.

Reasons to buy Microsoft: Potential for growth, strong cash flow.
Reasons not to buy Microsoft: High valuation, potential for a downturn.
Number of times I’ve changed my mind today: 17.

I think… I think I’ll just have another cup of tea. And maybe check the stock price one last time. Just to be sure. It’s a compulsion, really. A terrible, financially irresponsible compulsion. But what else is there to do?

2026-01-25 01:22

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