Intuitive Machines: A Lunar Leap of Faith

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You know, growing up, space always felt… inevitable. Like, of course we’d be flitting about amongst the stars by now. Star Trek made it look so easy. Turns out, it’s rather more complicated. Still, there’s a definite buzz about space travel these days, with SpaceX doing its remarkable rocket-catching routine and NASA, bless them, gearing up for Artemis. A return to the moon, you see. It’s a bit like deciding to revisit a slightly awkward family reunion – you know it’s going to be tricky, but there’s a strange allure.

And that’s where Intuitive Machines (LUNR 2.86%) comes in. They aren’t building rockets, precisely. Think of them as the logistics firm for lunar ambitions. A sort of United Parcel Service, but for rocks and scientific instruments. NASA, it turns out, outsources quite a bit these days. In 2024, Intuitive Machines was right up there with the big boys – Northrop Grumman (NOC +0.37%) and Lockheed Martin (LMT 0.52%) – as a key partner in the Artemis program. Which, when you think about it, is rather extraordinary for a company you’ve probably never heard of.

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Beyond Moonage Daydreams

Intuitive Machines isn’t just dreaming of space; they’re actively, and rather impressively, trying to get things to space. They’re involved in launching satellites – over 300 of them, apparently – and have a substantial backlog of NASA contracts totaling $4.82 billion for lunar infrastructure. They’re even expanding their Houston facility and acquiring other companies – KinetX Inc. for $30 million – to cope with the demand. It’s a bit like watching a small bakery suddenly being asked to supply cakes for an entire nation. A lot of frantic whisking is likely involved.

But the real story, the bit that has analysts (and, frankly, me) rather intrigued, is their delivery and infrastructure segment. Specifically, IM-3, their third lunar mission, slated for late spring/early summer. If this mission succeeds – and that’s a rather large ‘if’ – it could send Intuitive Machines’ stock into orbit, so to speak. It would demonstrate that they’ve ironed out the kinks exposed during their previous two attempts.

Those first two attempts, IM-1 (“Odysseus”) and IM-2 (“Athena”), were… well, let’s call them learning experiences. Both managed to get to the moon, which is a considerable achievement, but neither landed quite as gracefully as planned. Odysseus, the first American-made object to land on the moon in half a century, tipped over after breaking a lander leg. Athena suffered a similar fate, rendering its solar panels useless. It’s a bit like sending a package via express delivery only to have it arrive slightly dented and upside down. The contents were there, but the presentation wasn’t ideal.

IM-3 is being conducted with the lessons learned from those earlier missions. And while there are no guarantees in this business – particularly when attempting to land something on another celestial body – the stakes are undeniably high. This is a speculative stock, reliant on IM-3 and future missions being successful. A failure could send the share price tumbling.

However, Intuitive Machines has a fourth mission slated for 2027, with two more following. And I don’t foresee them struggling to secure new contracts. They currently have a backlog of $235 million, and are in talks with both public and private sector clients. The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory recently awarded them another $8.2 million to develop space-based nuclear power systems. Apparently, even the Air Force is getting into the lunar game.

Their financials are, as you might expect for a start-up in a niche industry, a work in progress. But they’re showing improvement. Revenue for the third quarter of 2025 totaled $52.4 million, and net losses shrank from $81.1 million in Q3 2024 to $10.3 million in Q3 2025. They also have a healthy cash reserve of $622 million, offset by $371 million in debt.

The stock is up 94% over the past six months, likely in anticipation of the next lunar mission. It’s a speculative play, certainly, but one with genuine potential. If you’re looking to get in on the ground floor of the space economy, Intuitive Machines is worth a look. It’s already valued at $3.89 billion, so reaching $4 billion seems entirely plausible if IM-3 succeeds. It’s a long shot, perhaps, but then again, so was sending a man to the moon in the first place.

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2026-01-24 11:13