AMD: When Intel Stumbles, Chips Are Up

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It’s a curious thing, the market. One moment, the wizards of Intel1 are proclaiming a bounty, the next they’re muttering about… well, not quite a famine, but a distinct lack of silicon sustenance. Their stock, predictably, is currently experiencing a gravitational event of some magnitude. Meanwhile, the artisans at Advanced Micro Devices [AMD] are experiencing a rather… buoyant upward draft. A most irregular situation, wouldn’t you agree?

AMD shares, as of this morning, have gained a respectable 3.8%. The question isn’t that they’ve gone up, it’s why. It’s rarely about simple good news, is it? More often, it’s about someone else’s bad news looking particularly good by comparison. Like finding a slightly less mouldy loaf in a bakery fire.

What Intel Said, and the Echoes Thereof

Intel, it seems, had a rather dazzling quarter. Sales figures exceeded expectations by a trifling $300 million – pocket change for a company that essentially powers the modern world, but enough to briefly impress the Guild of Alchemists and Venture Capitalists2. They even managed to double analyst predictions for earnings, a feat usually reserved for illusionists and particularly optimistic accountants. However, and this is a rather substantial ‘however’, they’ve forecast a future where things aren’t quite so… sparkly.

The projections for Q1 2026 are… let’s call them ‘challenging’. Sales are predicted to fall, earnings to stagnate, and the overall mood in the Intel war rooms is likely somewhere between ‘mildly concerned’ and ‘actively contemplating a career change’. They anticipate sales could dwindle to a mere $11.7 billion – a sum that, while still considerable, represents a significant dip. And as for earnings? Well, breaking even would be considered a triumph. A minor miracle, even. They’ll be lucky to scrape together the five coppers Wall Street was demanding.

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…and What it Means for AMD (and the Rest of Us)

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Intel is currently experiencing a… shall we say, a supply constraint. A polite way of saying they can’t make enough chips. And this shortage isn’t a temporary blip; it’s predicted to worsen in the coming quarter, and likely linger well into the next. Their CFO, a man named David Zinsner (presumably a distant relative of the famous pastry chef3), has warned that Q1 supply will be “at its lowest level” before a tentative improvement in Q2.

A weak Intel means a constricted supply of semiconductors across the board. And as even the most rudimentary economics lesson will tell you, limited supply combined with steady (or, in the case of AI, rapidly increasing) demand results in… higher prices. This, naturally, benefits those competing with Intel. AMD, being one such competitor, is therefore poised to enjoy a rather pleasant uptick in profit margins. It’s a simple equation, really: scarcity plus desire equals… opportunity.

Now, I hesitate to call AMD stock “cheap” at its current valuation (133 times earnings is… ambitious, even by the standards of magical thinking). But Intel’s report is, undeniably, good news for AMD today. It’s a reminder that in the turbulent world of technology, sometimes the best strategy isn’t to be the biggest wizard, but to be the one standing when everyone else has accidentally turned themselves into newts.

1 Intel, historically, has been known for its meticulous craftsmanship and dedication to quality. Some say their early engineers were apprenticed to gnomes. Others claim they simply had very good quality control. The truth, as always, is probably somewhere in between.

2 The Guild of Alchemists and Venture Capitalists is a notoriously fickle bunch. They’re easily distracted by shiny objects and prone to fits of irrational exuberance. Their investment decisions are often based on tea leaves, astrology, and the prevailing wind direction.

3 David Zinsner, the pastry chef, was famous for his exquisitely decorated cakes. He once created a replica of the Unseen University entirely out of marzipan. It was a masterpiece, but unfortunately, it was eaten by a visiting delegation of trolls.

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2026-01-23 18:33