Alphabet: A Calculated Risk Before the Bell

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Alphabet. The name tasted like opportunity, even in this town. The stock had a good run in ’25 – 65% isn’t something you see every day. And it’s been humming along nicely so far this year, up five percent. But the real play, the one that could make a man comfortable, is coming up. February the fourth. That’s when they report earnings. And I have a feeling this time, the numbers won’t just be good, they’ll be…interesting.

I’ve seen enough quarterly reports to know a setup when I see one. Here’s the lay of the land, three reasons why Alphabet is worth a look before the bell rings on the fourth. Don’t expect a charity case, though. This isn’t about hope. It’s about probability.

Gemini: From the Bottom of the Heap

They said Gemini couldn’t compete. A year ago, most investors would have laughed if you’d suggested it was a contender. Now? It’s clawing its way to the top. Resources have a way of winning out, even in this game. It’s not about brilliance, it’s about staying power.

It’s not just about the model itself. It’s about where it’s showing up. Google Search. The majority of the internet still flows through that pipe, and Gemini is now riding shotgun. An AI overview at the top of every search result? That’s millions of data points collected daily. A silent, relentless learning machine. The kind that makes a man nervous, if he thinks about it too long.

And they’re weaving it into everything. Email, photos, YouTube history…all feeding the beast. They’re building a profile, a digital shadow of every user. It’s a privacy nightmare for some, but for Alphabet, it’s gold. No upstart can replicate that. They don’t have the data. They don’t have the reach. They don’t have the permission.

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Google Cloud: The Quiet Money

Gemini gets the headlines, but Google Cloud is where the real money is starting to accumulate. They’re renting out computing power to companies chasing the AI dragon. It’s a simple equation: demand goes up, prices go up, Alphabet profits. They’re spending a fortune on data centers, sure, but that’s the cost of doing business in this town.

Last quarter, revenue jumped 34%. And the operating margin? Up from 17% to 24%. That’s a significant move. If they can keep that momentum going, Google Cloud could become a magnificent pillar of Alphabet’s empire. A steadier, more predictable business. The kind a man can build a future on.

The Old Reliable: Advertising

All this talk about AI and cloud computing can be distracting. Don’t forget what Alphabet is at its core: an advertising company. And the ad market has been surprisingly resilient. No major shifts in consumer habits. Which means the cash keeps flowing. Simple as that.

Wall Street is predicting 15% revenue growth for the quarter. But the real kicker is the expected jump in earnings per share – from $2.15 to $2.66. A 24% gain. If they beat expectations, the stock could pop. Five percent, maybe more. And I suspect they’ll give a rosy outlook for the coming year. Which makes this a calculated risk. A smart buy before the earnings bell rings. The numbers will tell the story, as they always do.

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2026-01-23 14:32