Right. So, the gas situation. It’s… complicated. Wood Mackenzie, who apparently know these things, reckon demand is going to jump by 22 billion cubic feet a day by 2030. 22 billion. That’s a lot of… well, gas. And then there’s the AI thing. All those data centres, guzzling power like… well, like AI data centres, actually. It’s enough to make one feel slightly breathless. And, naturally, slightly bullish. Which is why, despite everything, I bought more EQT.
It’s not a rational decision, obviously. No investment ever is, if you really think about it. It’s just… a feeling. A feeling that maybe, just maybe, this one won’t end with me eating instant noodles for a month.
The Low-Cost Leader (And My Sanity Saver)
EQT, you see, is… different. It’s vertically integrated, which sounds terribly impressive, but basically means they do everything themselves. From digging the gas out of the ground to getting it to where it needs to go. Which, logically, should save money. And save money is good. Especially when you consider the alternatives. (Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24.) They’ve even bought Equitrans Midstream. A whole midstream! It’s… comprehensive. Over 90% of their gas stays within their system. Which is efficient. And slightly terrifying, when you think about it. They produce gas at around $2 per MMBtu, which is apparently good, because gas is currently over $3. So, they’re making money. Which is… reassuring.
They’ve churned out $2.3 billion in free cash flow in the last year. $2.3 billion. I spent that much on coffee and therapy. They’re using it to pay down debt, buy back shares, and even give a dividend. A dividend! It’s almost… responsible. And they’ve got a million acres of low-cost resources that should last 30 years. Thirty years! I can barely plan a weekend.
They reckon they could generate between $10 and $25 billion in free cash flow by 2029, depending on the gas price. Which, let’s face it, is a bit of a gamble. But what isn’t?
Multiple Upside Catalysts (Or, Things That Might Go Right)
EQT is also busy expanding. They’re building pipelines (MVP Southgate and MVP Boost – very catchy names, aren’t they?), supplying gas to new power plants, and even looking at exporting liquefied natural gas. It’s all very ambitious. And slightly exhausting just thinking about it. They also bought Olympus’s upstream and midstream assets for $1.8 billion. Another midstream! They really like midstreams, don’t they?
They’re also strengthening their balance sheet, which is good. A strong balance sheet means more options. More flexibility. More… not having to sell all your possessions when things go wrong. They could use the cash to buy more stuff, or give more back to shareholders. It’s a lovely thought, actually.
The Best-Positioned Gas Producer (Or, My Best Hope)
So, EQT. It’s big. It’s integrated. It’s low-cost. It has multiple upside catalysts. And it’s all happening in a world where gas demand is likely to increase. It’s not a perfect plan. Nothing ever is. But it’s… enough. Enough to make me buy more shares. Enough to make me feel, just for a moment, that maybe, just maybe, I’m not completely financially doomed.
And frankly, after the week I’ve had, that’s saying something.
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2026-01-23 14:22