SSR Mining [SSRM +10.64%] woke up with a jump this morning. Ten percent, give or take. Seems analyst Steven Green at TD Cowen decided it was time to take a look. A buy rating, and a price target of $43 Canadian. That translates to $31.18 in U.S. dollars. Twenty-two percent north of where it’s trading now. A substantial move, even in this market.
The Cowen Angle
Green, they say, has a fondness for gold. A reasonable enough affection, considering the alternatives. He figures SSR Mining’s price is…compelling. Rising gold prices have a way of doing that to things. The stock’s cheaper than some of its rivals, and the cash flow is improving. A simple equation, really. Though simplicity is rarely found on Wall Street.
There’s also the Çöpler mine in Turkey. Suspended after an accident last year. A reopened mine is a good thing. A catalyst, they call it. It’s a waiting game, naturally. And waiting always carries a risk. Like a gambler staring down an empty table.
A Buy? The Numbers Tell a Story
An old friend of mine, a man who understood risk, used to say he bought gold miners when they traded for less than ten times their operating cash flow. A rule of thumb, of course. Rules are meant to be broken. SSR Mining doesn’t quite fit that bill right now. The stock has had a run, nearly tripled in the last year. It’s close, though. A $4.7 billion market cap. Not unreasonable.
The forecasts are interesting. Analysts at S&P Global see operating cash flow surging to $946 million in 2026. Over a billion in 2027 if Çöpler comes back online. If those numbers hold, there’s room for the stock to move. More than double, they say. Optimism is a dangerous game, but sometimes you have to play it.
Even looking at traditional metrics – price to earnings, price to free cash flow – SSR Mining sells for around 25 times both. Not cheap, but not outrageous. With a projected growth rate exceeding 100% over the next five years, it’s a gamble I’m willing to consider. The market is a dirty business, and SSR Mining is just another player in the game. But sometimes, you find a glimmer in the dust.
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2026-01-22 20:14