Alright, folks, listen up! You know Carnival (CUK +1.22%) (CCL +0.82%)? Of course you do. You’ve either been on one of their boats – or, let’s be honest, seen a documentary about one sinking. And who hasn’t noticed Shaq hawking cruises on television? The man’s a national treasure. Anyway, this isn’t about Shaq, it’s about a company that, despite everything, is still making waves. And, more importantly, still looks cheap. I’ve been staring at this stock, and I’m telling you, it’s a deal. A deal, I say! Like finding a perfectly good herring in a pickle barrel.
1. Cheaper Than a Week in Hoboken
Now, some folks will tell you Carnival stock has doubled from its lows last year. “Oh, it’s expensive!” they cry. Nonsense! It’s like saying a slightly used chariot is too pricey. I’ve seen better deals at a Roman auction! The math, my friends, is surprisingly…pleasant. You can snag shares for just 11 times what the analysts think they’ll earn this year. 10 times if you’re patient enough to wait until 2027. That, my friends, is a discount. A genuine, honest-to-goodness bargain! And for the biggest player in a growing travel niche? It’s practically highway robbery…in Carnival’s favor, of course.
2. Beating Expectations – It’s a Habit!
Good companies sometimes beat Wall Street’s predictions. Great companies do it consistently. Carnival? They’re on a streak! It’s like a vaudeville performer who never misses a cue. They’ve been exceeding expectations for ten quarters straight. Ten! That’s… a lot of quarters. I haven’t seen consistency like that since I tried to make a souffle. Look at this table – it’s almost embarrassing how often they surprise everyone.
| Period | EPS Estimate | Actual EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Q3 2023 | $0.75 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Fiscal Q4 2023 | ($0.13) | ($0.07) | 46% |
| Fiscal Q1 2024 | ($0.18) | ($0.14) | 22% |
| Fiscal Q2 2024 | ($0.02) | $0.11 | 650% |
| Fiscal Q3 2024 | $1.15 | $1.27 | 10% |
| Fiscal Q4 2024 | $0.07 | $0.14 | 94% |
| Fiscal Q1 2025 | $0.02 | $0.13 | 485% |
| Fiscal Q2 2025 | $0.35 | $0.24 | 46% |
| Fiscal Q3 2025 | $1.32 | $1.43 | 9% |
| Fiscal Q4 2025 | $0.25 | $0.34 | 39% |
They’re consistently beating expectations by at least 9%. Nine percent! It’s practically a declaration of financial wizardry. And if they keep this up, those Wall Street targets? They’ll be shooting for the moon. Which means, naturally, that the stock is even cheaper today than it looks.
3. Momentum? We’ve Got Momentum!
Carnival sets the bar low, then leaps over it with the grace of a slightly overweight acrobat. When fiscal 2025 began, they predicted $1.70 per share in profit. But they didn’t stop there! Each quarter, they revised that number upward. $1.83, then $1.97, then $2.14. They ultimately landed at $2.25! It’s like a magician pulling rabbits out of a hat – except the rabbits are profits. Even when they stumble – like that disappointing 3% revenue growth – they still manage to improve their fundamentals. It’s a ship that refuses to sink, I tell ya!
4. Payouts – They’re Back!
Remember when Carnival suspended its dividend in 2020? The pandemic was rough on cruise ships, naturally. But they’ve reinstated it! A $0.15 quarterly payout doesn’t sound like much, I admit. But it translates to a 2.1% dividend yield. More importantly, it’s a sign that Carnival believes the turnaround is complete. They’re confident enough to return money to shareholders for the first time in six years. That, my friends, is a good sign. A very good sign.
5. Demand is Surging!
Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein says bookings for fiscal 2026 are already two-thirds full. And customer deposits are up 7% year-over-year. That’s a lot of people eager to set sail. Of course, world peace and the global economy are always a bit unpredictable. But Carnival can’t control that. All they can do is provide a good experience for their customers. And so far, they’re doing just that. And that, my friends, is a recipe for success. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I think I’ll book a cruise myself. For research purposes, naturally.
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2026-01-22 14:34