Thiel’s AI Bets: A Portfolio Diary

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Right. So, Peter Thiel. Billionaire, Palantir founder, generally someone who seems to know what he’s doing, even if I suspect it involves a lot of very expensive consultants and a private jet. He’s shifted his entire portfolio into just three AI stocks. Three! It’s… decisive. And slightly terrifying. Makes my own investment strategy – which currently involves a lot of ‘research’ (read: scrolling through Twitter) and hoping for the best – feel particularly inadequate.

He sold all his Nvidia. All of it. Apparently, he thinks the future is… elsewhere. Let’s break it down, shall we? Because honestly, I need to. It feels like there’s a lesson here, and I’m desperate to find it before the market opens and I make another questionable decision.

Here’s the current allocation, according to the filings. It’s like a shopping list for the apocalypse, but a very expensive one:

  • Tesla (TSLA +2.84%): 39%. Honestly, a lot.
  • Microsoft (MSFT 2.29%): 34%. Solid. Reliable. Like a sensible pair of shoes.
  • Apple (AAPL +0.43%): 27%. Still clinging to its premium status. I suspect it’s mostly about the ecosystem. You get sucked in, and then you’re buying adapters for everything.

Thiel Macro, his fund, outperformed the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points last year. Sixteen! I’m fairly certain my portfolio underperformed by… well, let’s not talk about it. But it does suggest he’s onto something. So, let’s dive in. And maybe, just maybe, I can salvage some dignity (and a few percentage points).

Tesla: 39% – The Elon Gamble

Okay, Tesla. It’s lost market share in electric cars to BYD, which, let’s be honest, sounds like a villain in a sci-fi movie. But the investment thesis isn’t about cars anymore, apparently. It’s about… robots. And self-driving cars. And the promise of a future where robots do everything for us. It’s a bit unsettling, really. I mean, what will I do? Besides worry about my investments, of course.

The vision-only strategy for self-driving is interesting. Apparently, it’s cheaper. Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla spends ten times less on sensors than Waymo. Ten times! That’s a lot of lidar. It’s a bit like choosing between a sensible hatchback and a spaceship. One is practical, the other is… ambitious. And potentially very expensive if it crashes.

And then there’s Optimus, the humanoid robot. Elon Musk says it will be the most important product. 80% of the value! I’m starting to suspect he just likes building things. It’s a bit like my sourdough starter. Started with good intentions, now it just sits there, demanding to be fed.

Valuing Tesla is… challenging. The car business is sputtering, but the robots aren’t making money yet. Grand View Research reckons robotaxi sales will grow at 99% annually through 2033. Ninety-nine percent! That sounds… optimistic. Morgan Stanley expects humanoid robot sales to grow at 54% annually through 2035. It’s a multitrillion-dollar market in the making, apparently. It’s a good way to get exposure, if you’re feeling particularly adventurous. Or reckless.

Microsoft: 34% – The Enterprise AI Play

Microsoft. Reliable. Predictable. Like a good cup of tea. They’re exploiting their strength in enterprise software and cloud computing to monetize AI. Copilots for everything. Office, cybersecurity, enterprise resource planning. It’s like they’re trying to automate all our jobs. Which, let’s be honest, is slightly terrifying.

Monthly active users for the copilots are up to 150 million. That’s a lot of people letting AI write their emails. Azure, their cloud platform, has gained market share. And they own 27% of OpenAI. Exclusive rights to the most advanced models until 2032. It’s a bit like owning the keys to the future. Or at least, a very powerful algorithm.

Morgan Stanley’s CIO survey suggests Azure is the cloud provider most likely to gain share. Cloud services spending is expected to grow at 16% annually through 2033. It’s a solid growth story. Wall Street expects earnings to grow at 14% annually. The valuation is 32 times earnings. Pricey. Very pricey. But potentially worth it, if they can keep growing.

Apple: 27% – The Premium AI Question Mark

Apple. Still leading in smartphone sales. But they haven’t released a major new product since AirPods in 2017. It’s been a while. And they’re late to the AI party. They’re outsourcing the technology to Alphabet’s Gemini models. It’s a bit like admitting defeat. Or at least, a strategic retreat.

They have over 2.3 billion active devices worldwide. A massive user base. They could sell AI subscription services. A premium version of Apple Intelligence. It could write, proofread, and summarize text. It’s a logical move. But will it be enough? Will it reignite the innovation engine?

Wall Street expects earnings to grow at 10% annually. The valuation is 33 times earnings. Very pricey. The PEG ratio is 3.3. Personally, I think there are better places to put your money. Unless you’re a die-hard Apple fan. In which case, go for it. But don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. Will become disciplined long-term investor. (Probably not.)

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2026-01-22 11:12