So, last year I pointed out a few AI stocks that, shockingly, went up. Like, actually went up. It was a simpler time. A time before everyone’s aunt was a day trader and claiming to be a “crypto influencer.” Anyway, the stocks in question were Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Alphabet, and Meta. They did pretty well. I mean, shockingly well. Three of them managed a minimum 38% jump. Which, let’s be honest, is the kind of return that makes even me briefly consider a 401k.
The big question now, of course, is whether we’re looking at another year of gains, or if we’ve reached peak AI euphoria. Because let’s face it, everything is a bubble until it pops. I’m not saying it will pop, just that I’ve already started mentally preparing my resignation speech.
AI: Still a Thing
Here’s the breakdown. Nvidia and TSMC are basically the pick-and-shovel guys of the AI gold rush. They make the actual hardware. Which is good, because someone has to. Alphabet and Meta are more focused on the “shiny object” side – the apps and the generative AI stuff. They’re the ones promising to replace your job with a chatbot. I’m not saying that’s a bad thing, just that it’s a little on the nose. I think all four have potential, but the hardware guys are currently in a more… stable position. Think of it like this: someone always needs shovels, even if the gold runs out.
TSMC thinks it can grow by 30% this year, mostly thanks to AI chip demand. Nvidia, meanwhile, is busy printing money. Analysts predict their revenue will jump 50%. Which, if you’re keeping score at home, is a lot. It’s enough to make you briefly consider starting a podcast about the stock market, then immediately regret it.
Look, I’m not saying they won’t continue to do well, but expecting another 54% (TSMC) or 39% (Nvidia) jump is… optimistic. I’m thinking high-20s is more realistic. Which, admittedly, is still pretty good. It’s like winning a slightly smaller lottery. You still buy a moderately nicer car.
Show Me the ROI!
Here’s where it gets tricky. Meta and Alphabet are throwing insane amounts of money at AI data centers. And investors are starting to ask, “What are we actually getting for all this?” It’s the corporate equivalent of a teenager asking, “What do you do all day?” They need to show a return on investment, or things could get… awkward.
If they can demonstrate real progress with their generative AI stuff, the market will probably be receptive. But if it’s just more hype and empty promises, things could get ugly. It’s like dating. You can get away with a lot in the beginning, but eventually, you have to show some substance.
Alphabet seems to be leading the charge in this space and is becoming the default generative AI model for a lot of applications. Which is good for them. I think they’re in a solid position to post decent returns, although probably not as spectacular as last year. Meta, on the other hand, is in a bit of a rough patch. Most of their investments haven’t yielded anything substantial yet. It’s like throwing a party and nobody showing up. It could change, but it’s entirely dependent on how well their AI advancements are received.
Look, TSMC and Nvidia are the safer bets. But Meta and Alphabet could still deliver good returns, especially if the AI tailwinds remain strong. Just remember: past performance is not indicative of future results. And also, don’t invest money you can’t afford to lose. Or, you know, just buy a really nice handbag. That’s a much more reliable investment.
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2026-01-22 00:53