Intel’s Ohio Folly: A Comedy of Errors

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It has come to pass, dear readers, that the noble house of Intel, a name once synonymous with the very engines of calculation, finds itself embroiled in a most curious undertaking. A grand ambition, no less, to erect two temples of silicon in the wilds of Ohio, at a cost exceeding twenty-eight billion crowns—or, as they say in these modern times, dollars. This, they proclaim, is to become a foundry, a manufactory for the chips that power the world. A most audacious claim, given the current state of affairs.

Originally, this marvel was to bear fruit by the year 2025. Alas, time, that relentless critic, has forced repeated postponements. One begins to suspect that the entire enterprise is a phantom, a magnificent delusion constructed to appease shareholders and distract from more pressing concerns. When the new steward, one Lip-Bu Tan, assumed command, whispers arose questioning whether these structures would ever see the light of day. He decreed that the ’14A’ process, a key to this foundry’s supposed success, would only proceed if external patrons—those willing to pay for Intel’s services—were secured. As of this moment, the target date for the first chips emerging from Ohio is a distant 2030 – a delay that smacks of desperation, or perhaps, a polite admission of difficulty.

The Stage is Set: A Tale of Two Processes

The ’18A’ process, a precursor to this grand design, stumbled at its debut. Yields, those precious measures of successful fabrication, proved troublesome, and the hoped-for clientele remained elusive. It was a performance met with polite applause, but lacking in genuine conviction. However, recent reports suggest a modest improvement. Yields now exceed sixty percent, enough, it seems, to launch the ‘Panther Lake’ processors. And, most intriguing, rumors abound that even the discerning Apple may deign to entrust some of its chip production to Intel, both on the ’18A’ and potentially the ’14A’ processes.

While ’18A’ may not be the resounding triumph Intel craves, it offers a glimmer of hope. The true test, the proving ground for this foundry ambition, lies with ’14A’. To succeed, Intel must secure significant external contracts before production commences, a condition that appears, at present, rather optimistic.

Two recent signs, however, suggest a potential shift in the drama. First, the construction firm erecting these Ohio monuments has posted advertisements for new positions. A trifle, one might say, after three years of labor, yet it hints at a possible acceleration of activity. More significantly, our new steward, Mr. Tan, has uttered pronouncements quite unlike his cautious pronouncements of yesteryear. “We are going big time into 14A,” he declared, with a boldness that borders on audacity. “Stay tuned, we are going to see a lot of great momentum on the 14A in terms of yields and IP portfolio.” A change of heart, or merely a masterful performance to reassure the audience?

This pronouncement, coupled with the hiring news, suggests a renewed confidence, perhaps even an attempt to expedite the timeline. Should chip production not begin until 2030, the entire venture risks becoming obsolete, a costly relic of misplaced ambition. A launch in 2028 or 2029, while ambitious, is not entirely beyond the realm of possibility, particularly if a customer—such as the aforementioned Apple—were to commit to the ’14A’ process for chips launching in that timeframe.

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The Market’s Applause: What Does it Mean for Intel’s Shares?

Intel is scheduled to present its quarterly accounts on Thursday. While no immediate announcements regarding the foundry are anticipated, any indication of an accelerated Ohio timeline, or the securing of a major external customer, would undoubtedly ignite a surge in the company’s share price.

Furthermore, the chronic shortage of advanced manufacturing capacity—a situation dominated by the formidable TSMC—presents a unique opportunity. As chip designers scramble to secure production slots, Intel stands to benefit, at least in the short term. TSMC has indeed increased its capital expenditure plans, but the construction of new fabrication facilities is a protracted undertaking, measured in years, not months.

Through much of the past year, Intel’s foundry ambitions appeared to be teetering on the brink of failure. However, the recent developments—the hiring news, Mr. Tan’s pronouncements—suggest a brighter outlook. If Intel can dispel any lingering doubts surrounding its foundry strategy, the company may well experience a sustained rally as it taps into the burgeoning demand for advanced chip manufacturing. The comedy, dear readers, is far from over. The final act remains to be written.

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2026-01-20 17:42