Rigetti: A Quantum Flutter and its Peculiar Gains

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Rigetti Computing, a name that trips rather elegantly off the tongue, managed, despite the customary market palpitations, to close out 2025 with a gain of 45.2%. A respectable figure, certainly, though one wonders if the applause isn’t a touch premature for a company still sketching the blueprints for a future it hasn’t quite reached. The S&P 500, a more earthbound creature, ambled forward with a gain of 16.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite, ever the showman, leapt 20.4%. Rigetti, however, possesses a certain… rarefied quality, a whisper of the improbable that captivates, even as it demands a particularly cautious appraisal.

The year began, predictably, with a shiver of skepticism, prompted by the pronouncements of Nvidia’s Jensen Huang regarding the timeline for quantum commercialization. A momentary dip, a fleeting shadow, swiftly dispelled by a more optimistic breeze from the same source. One suspects Mr. Huang enjoys a little theatricality, a carefully calibrated oscillation between promise and postponement. More substantially, a series of partnerships – those delicate webs of obligation and expectation – began to knit themselves around Rigetti, lending the stock a temporary buoyancy.

A Quantum Waltz of Deals and Integrations

For much of 2025, Rigetti’s share price languished, a moth circling a distant flame. Then, in September, a contract materialized – $5.8 million over three years from the Air Force Research Laboratory. A sum that, while not astronomical, possessed a certain… gravity. Rigetti, in collaboration with the Dutch firm QphoX, is tasked with exploring the intricacies of quantum networking. A field that sounds, to the uninitiated, like something out of a particularly ambitious science fiction novel. One pictures technicians in spotless labs, coaxing photons into obedient formations.

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October brought further tidings: a collaboration with Nvidia, involving the integration of Rigetti’s technology with Nvidia’s NVQLink platform. A marriage of convenience, perhaps, or a genuine synergy. The market, at least, responded with enthusiasm, sending the stock into a brief, exhilarating ascent. But the euphoria proved fleeting, eroded by anxieties surrounding valuations – that ever-present specter haunting the realms of high-risk AI and quantum ventures. A reminder that even the most promising bubbles eventually…thin.

A Continued Ascent, Though on What Precipice?

Early 2026 has witnessed a continuation of Rigetti’s upward trajectory, with gains of 15.7% dwarfing the modest advances of the S&P 500 (1.4%) and Nasdaq Composite (1.2%). Quantum stocks, it seems, are enjoying a moment in the sun. And, predictably, the analysts have chimed in. Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a ‘buy’ rating, accompanied by a price target of $40 per share – a figure that, as of this writing, suggests a potential upside of 56%. One wonders if these pronouncements are based on rigorous analysis, or simply a collective desire to believe in the magic of quantum entanglement.

The company reported sales of $5.22 million for the first three quarters of 2025, a substantial decline from the $8.52 million recorded during the same period in 2024. A disconcerting detail, glossed over by the more exuberant commentators. Bullish investors, however, are banking on a surge in sales in 2026 and beyond. A gamble, certainly. The path to commercialization remains uneven, fraught with technical challenges and the ever-present risk of obsolescence. One might say Rigetti is navigating a particularly treacherous labyrinth, hoping to emerge, blinking, into the light.

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2026-01-20 14:53