UPS: A Brown Box and a Rumor of Turnaround

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The market, you see, is a curious beast. It doesn’t so much see as it flails about, reacting to shadows and whispers. And right now, it’s decided that United Parcel Service – UPS to those of us who prefer not to say the full title thrice in a row lest we summon a rogue delivery driver1 – is deeply unfashionable. The share price has taken a tumble, down a rather alarming 53% from its 2022 peak. Yet, strangely, over the last three months, it’s been… well, perking up. Rising nearly 30%. This, naturally, requires investigation. Like a wizard examining a slightly-used spellbook, we must discern what’s truly going on.

The Art of Moving Things

UPS, in its essence, is a logistical marvel. It picks up boxes and moves them. Sounds simple, doesn’t it? Like explaining the universe as ‘mostly empty space.’ The devil, as always, is in the details. It’s not merely about A to B. It’s about A to B to C to D, all while avoiding rogue pigeons and the occasional existential crisis of a sorting machine.2

Those brown trucks, the ubiquitous delivery drones, the little kiosks… they’re just the visible bits. The actual magic happens behind the scenes. Vast warehouses humming with robotic efficiency, a network of roads and rails stretching across continents, and enough airplanes to make a small country nervous. And all of it orchestrated by a computer system that tracks every parcel with the obsessive dedication of a librarian guarding a first edition. It’s a truly impressive feat of engineering, and one that even Amazon, that titan of online commerce, still relies upon. Amazon may dream of handling everything itself, but for now, it still needs UPS to deliver a significant portion of its… well, everything.

A Change of Course

Amazon, you see, is a rather important piece of this puzzle. A large customer, certainly, but one who squeezes the profit margins until they squeak. UPS, in a moment of uncharacteristic boldness, decided to… politely decline some of Amazon’s business. It’s akin to a baker refusing to sell bread at a loss, which, let’s face it, is a revolutionary act in the current economic climate.3 This is part of a larger overhaul, a strategic repositioning. They’re shedding the low-profit ventures and focusing on the things that actually, you know, make money. It’s a sensible plan, really, if you ignore the fact that Wall Street doesn’t particularly care for sensible plans.

The market, as mentioned, is a fickle creature. It’s been reacting to the short-term pain – the spending, the lower revenue – rather than the long-term potential. Quarterly earnings reports have been… less than celebratory. But if you dig a little deeper, past the headline numbers, you start to see glimmers of hope. Signs that the turnaround is actually, possibly, happening.

For instance, in the second quarter of 2025, revenue per package in the US market rose a respectable 5.5%. And then, in the third quarter, it jumped a rather impressive 9.8%. One quarter could be a fluke, a statistical anomaly. But two quarters? That’s starting to look like a trend. Which, naturally, is why the share price has been inching upwards.

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It’s reasonable to expect that the fourth quarter will continue this upward trajectory. Another increase in revenue per package would be a clear signal that UPS has weathered the worst of the storm and is finally starting to regain its footing. And if that happens, further gains in the share price seem… likely. Though, of course, nothing is ever truly certain in the world of finance. Except, perhaps, taxes and the inevitability of paperwork.

Don’t Wait for the Brown Truck to Drive Off

Now, let’s be clear. UPS isn’t for the faint of heart. The dividend yield is high, yes, but also… precarious. The payout ratio is currently hovering above 100%, which suggests that a dividend cut is a distinct possibility.4 But if you’re a turnaround investor, someone who enjoys a bit of risk and a potential reward, UPS might just be worth a look. The next earnings report could be the catalyst that Wall Street is waiting for, the confirmation that the turnaround is real and that the price rally is about to kick into high gear.


1 It’s a long-standing superstition amongst logistics professionals. Don’t ask.
2 They’re surprisingly philosophical, those machines. Especially the ones that sort packages in alphabetical order.
3 The baker, naturally, was immediately branded a revolutionary and forced to bake bread for the entire kingdom. It was a complicated situation.
4 Though, to be fair, most companies are just one bad quarter away from a similar predicament.

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2026-01-17 23:34