My aunt Carol, a woman who believes strongly in the healing power of crystals and the inevitability of stock tips from the checkout guy at Kroger, recently asked me about Intel. “Is it…good now?” she inquired, as if the entire company’s fate hinged on whether or not I gave it my blessing. I told her it was…complicated. Which, let’s be honest, is the story of most things, isn’t it? And definitely the story of Intel.
For years, they’ve been sort of…flailing. A bit like a dog trying to catch its tail while simultaneously being chased by a vacuum cleaner. TSMC, meanwhile, has been calmly vacuuming up all the manufacturing prowess, leaving Intel in a cloud of dust and regret. And then there’s AMD, consistently nipping at their heels. It’s a harsh image, I know, but accurate. I spend a lot of time thinking about animal metaphors for failing tech companies. It’s a surprisingly effective coping mechanism.
But lately, the chatter has shifted. There’s been a flurry of optimism, fueled by government deals (always a good sign, that) and rumors of Apple potentially using their foundries. It’s a bit like watching a previously condemned building suddenly receive a fresh coat of paint. It doesn’t necessarily mean the foundation is sound, but it does make it look…less alarming.
The Foundry Fantasy
Citigroup’s Atif Malik recently upgraded Intel from a “sell” to a “hold,” which, in Wall Street terms, is like saying, “Okay, it’s not actively on fire anymore.” He’s betting on the foundry business, the idea that Intel can become a major chip manufacturer for other companies. The logic is that TSMC is maxed out, the U.S. government wants more domestic manufacturing, and companies designing custom AI chips are desperate for options. It’s a tidy narrative, and frankly, it feels a bit…hopeful. I’m always suspicious of tidy narratives.
They’ve got the 18A process in production, which sounds impressive, and apparently, yields are improving. I picture a team of engineers in sterile suits, meticulously monitoring silicon wafers, praying to the god of semiconductors. It’s a high-stakes game, and frankly, I’d rather be home organizing my sock drawer.
Malik thinks AI ASICs – those specialized chips for artificial intelligence – will be a big driver for the foundry business. Apparently, companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft are all designing their own custom chips. The demand for AI is insatiable, and Intel is hoping to capitalize on it. It’s a reasonable plan, if you ignore the fact that they spent the last decade stumbling around in the dark.
Still a Few Cracks in the Foundation
But here’s where it gets tricky. Malik isn’t entirely convinced by Intel’s CPU business. Their new Panther Lake chips are getting good reviews, but they won’t be in desktop PCs. They’re banking on Arrow Lake and its refresh to hold things down until Nova Lake arrives in, oh, 2026. It feels like a lot of waiting. A lot of hoping. A lot of potential for things to go sideways.
Apparently, Arrow Lake has some issues with gaming performance. Which, in my opinion, is a perfectly valid reason to be skeptical. I mean, if you can’t even run a decent video game, what’s the point? And then there’s the threat of Arm-based devices. Qualcomm is making a push into the PC CPU market, and while compatibility issues are slowing them down, it’s a reminder that Intel isn’t the only player in the game.
On top of all that, rising memory chip prices could hurt PC demand. Apparently, AI data centers consume a ridiculous amount of memory, and manufacturers are shifting capacity to HBM used in AI accelerators. It’s a cascade of complications, and frankly, it’s exhausting just thinking about it.
So, is Intel a good investment? I honestly don’t know. Malik is more balanced in his view than some of the other analysts, but it’s clear that Intel is still trying to dig itself out of a very deep hole. Some positive foundry news could propel the stock higher, but it’s also entirely possible that they’ll stumble and fall right back down. It’s a risk, and frankly, I prefer the predictability of a well-organized sock drawer.
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2026-01-17 16:43