The cryptocurrency market, as anyone who’s glanced at it recently will confirm, is a bit like a particularly enthusiastic bouncy castle. All upward surges and sudden deflations. Over the past year, it’s experienced a modest dip – around 9% – largely due to the understandable reluctance of investors to gamble on things when the global economy is exhibiting the stability of a jelly. And, of course, a bit of unwinding of debt-fueled positions. Perfectly normal, really.
Now, XRP (XRP 0.82%), the digital doodad associated with Ripple, hasn’t exactly been leading the charge. It’s underperformed, dropping a respectable 22% to $2.08 over the last twelve months. But Geoffrey Kendrick, a fellow at Standard Chartered Bank who clearly has more faith in these things than I do, anticipates a rebound. He suggests that regulatory clarity (a concept that feels perpetually just over the horizon) and the arrival of spot Exchange Traded Funds – ETFs, to those in the know – could propel XRP to a rather optimistic $12.50 by 2028. That, he calculates, represents a 500% upside. A significant return, even for those of us accustomed to the occasional lucky punt.
The Blockchain and the Quest for Faster Payments
XRP operates on the XRP Ledger, a blockchain designed to facilitate swift and inexpensive cross-border transactions. Ripple, the company behind it, aims to provide real-time payment solutions to banks and other financial institutions. The current system, known as SWIFT, is… well, it’s a bit like sending a message by carrier pigeon. It works, eventually, but it takes three to five days and incurs fees that seem designed to discourage international commerce. Ripple, naturally, claims it can do it faster and cheaper. The promise of near-instant settlement and negligible fees is, admittedly, rather appealing.
SWIFT currently handles a staggering $150 trillion in annual transactions. Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, believes XRP could capture 14% of that volume, moving over $20 trillion annually. This, naturally, would boost demand for XRP. I remain… skeptical. It seems a bit optimistic to expect a relatively obscure cryptocurrency to displace established systems. And frankly, the idea of transferring money with something so volatile, even if the transactions are speedy, feels a bit like building a house on quicksand. Why not use stablecoins? They’re, well, stable. Ripple did attempt to address this with Ripple USD (RLUSD) in December 2024, but it hasn’t exactly set the world alight. XRP transaction volume, in fact, has been trending downward. A curious state of affairs.
ETFs and the Institutional Investor
Retail and institutional investors are becoming increasingly comfortable with digital assets. But cryptocurrency exchanges, like Coinbase, are still a bit of a pain. High fees, separate accounts… it’s all rather inconvenient. The recent approval of spot XRP ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is a step in the right direction. Six funds now trade on U.S. exchanges, offering investors relatively cheap XRP exposure through traditional brokerage accounts. The Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ), with its expense ratio of 0.19%, looks particularly attractive, especially compared to Coinbase or Robinhood’s fees for smaller transactions.
The potential for institutional investor demand is significant. As of June 2025, they had a cool $147 trillion in assets under management. Even a tiny fraction of that invested in spot XRP ETFs could, theoretically, push the price higher. Kendrick believes inflows could total $4 billion to $8 billion in the first year. I suspect, however, that Bitcoin will remain the favored digital playground for these large players. The initial response seems to bear this out. Spot XRP ETFs drew $1.4 billion in net inflows in their first two months, while Bitcoin ETFs hit that milestone in less than a month. A telling statistic, perhaps.
My own assessment? Kendrick’s $12.50 target by 2028 seems… ambitious. I doubt XRP will ever be a major facilitator of cross-border payments. Stablecoins make far more sense. And I suspect Ripple USD will struggle to disrupt established stablecoins like USDC from Circle Internet Group. That leaves spot ETFs as the primary catalyst for price appreciation. While they could provide a material boost in demand, I suspect institutional investors will prioritize the tried and tested. It’s a curious market, and one best approached with a healthy dose of skepticism, and perhaps a comfortable chair.
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2026-01-17 11:42