Quantum Computing: A Perfectly Reasonable Panic

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So, everyone’s talking about quantum computing, right? A $72 billion market by 2035. Seventy-two billion. It’s just…a lot. And frankly, the whole thing feels…premature. Like when they started selling those “smart” refrigerators that just needed a software update every other week. A solution in search of a problem. I’ve been looking at this IonQ, this supposed leader, and it’s…well, it’s a company. That’s a start. But a company doing something that, as far as I can tell, no one actually needs yet. It’s like opening a bespoke spats shop in 2024.

The problem isn’t necessarily the technology itself—though I’m sure there are plenty of technical hurdles. It’s the presentation. All these venture capitalists throwing money at it, talking about “disrupting” everything. Disrupting what, exactly? My morning coffee? And then they expect returns. It’s just…rude. It’s like inviting yourself over for dinner and then demanding the best cut of meat.

This whole industry is a crowded mess. Dozens of companies, all vying for the same slice of a pie that may not even exist. And they’re all using different approaches! Different approaches! It’s like everyone deciding to build a car using a different steering wheel configuration. Some are using qubits, some are using…whatever else they’re using. It’s chaos! And who’s going to decide which approach is the right one? Some committee? A panel of experts? I can already picture the meetings. The passive-aggressive emails. The PowerPoint presentations filled with jargon. It’s a nightmare.

And then you have the big guys – Alphabet, Microsoft, IBM. They have all the money in the world. They can afford to lose billions on this thing. IonQ? They’re burning through cash like it’s going out of style. It’s a classic David and Goliath situation, except Goliath has a significantly better credit rating. And a legal department. A very good legal department. It’s not a fair fight. It’s just…unsportsmanlike.

McKinsey says $72 billion by 2035. That’s a range, of course. A very wide range. From $28 billion to $72 billion. That’s like saying you might be going to the beach or you might be staying home and reorganizing your sock drawer. It’s not a prediction; it’s an admission of complete uncertainty. And they’re presenting it as if it’s a solid business plan! It’s insulting to my intelligence.

IonQ claims to have the most accurate quantum computer. Okay, fine. But accurate to what? Accurate enough to calculate my taxes? Accurate enough to predict the weather? Because last time I checked, the weather forecast was still wrong half the time. And they’re still making errors! A long way from commercially viable, they say. So, they’re selling a promise. A very expensive promise. It’s like pre-ordering a self-driving car that still needs a chauffeur.

Look, I’m not saying IonQ is going to fail. I’m just saying that the odds are stacked against them. Too much competition, too much uncertainty, too much hype. There’s a chance they’ll be a winner, sure. But you have to be patient. Very patient. A decade, they say. A decade! I can barely remember what I had for breakfast.

If you’re willing to wait ten years, maybe it’s worth a shot. But if you’re looking for a quick return, forget about it. Don’t just trade in and out of the stock. That’s not investing; that’s gambling. And frankly, I have enough stress in my life without adding quantum computing to the mix. It’s just…a whole thing. A perfectly reasonable panic, if you ask me.

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2026-01-17 03:42