Right. Chime. It’s one of those things, isn’t it? A fintech company. Supposedly disruptive. Went public in June 2025 at $27, briefly touched $43, and now… well, it’s hovering around $26. Honestly, it feels a bit like my dating life: initial promise, followed by a slow, disheartening descent. Units of Fintech Hope Lost: 1. Hours Spent Staring at Stock Charts: 7. Number of Times I’ve Considered Just Putting it All in Biscuits: 3.
The market cap is $8.7 billion. Not nothing. Though it peaked at $25 billion in 2021. Which, let’s be honest, feels like a lifetime ago. Everything felt more optimistic then. Before the…everything. Could it bounce back? That’s the question, isn’t it? A millionaire-maker? It’s a big ask. A very big ask. But let’s dissect it. For my own sanity, if nothing else.
How Does it Actually Make Money?
Chime is, essentially, a friendly bank for people who don’t really do banks. Fee-free checking, savings, overdraft protection…all the things that seem basic, but aren’t always. They also have a Visa debit card – access to 50,000 ATMs is a definite plus – and a credit card for building scores. It’s appealing, I suppose, to those who don’t have a pile of cash just sitting around. Which, let’s face it, is most of us.
The clever bit is, Chime isn’t actually a bank. They outsource the banking part to The Bancorp Bank and Stride Bank. They’re the ones holding the money. Chime just…facilitates. It’s like being a party planner. You get all the credit, but someone else actually has to buy the canapés. They make their money from “swipe fees” – the little cut Visa takes from every transaction. And a bit from the banks for bringing in new customers. It’s…efficient. I’ll give them that.
Growth: The Numbers, and My Nerves
In 2023 and 2024, they added members, increased spending, and grew revenue per member. That’s what got everyone excited initially. I briefly considered buying in. Briefly. But then the numbers started to…wobble.
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Members | 6.6 million | 8.0 million | 8.6 million | 8.7 million | 9.1 million |
| Growth (YOY) | 25% | 21% | 23% | 23% | 21% |
| Purchase Volume | $92.4 billion | $115.2 billion | $34.5 billion | $32.4 billion | $32.3 billion |
| Growth (YOY) | 29% | 25% | 18% | 18% | 15% |
| ARPAM | $212 | $245 | $251 | $245 | $245 |
| Growth (YOY) | 1% | 16% | 9% | 12% | 6% |
| Revenue | $1.28 billion | $1.67 billion | $519 million | $528 million | $544 million |
| Growth (YOY) | 27% | 31% | 32% | 37% | 29% |
Purchase volume declined in Q2 and Q3 2025. ARPAM flatlined. They managed to keep revenue growing by attracting more members, but investors…panicked. And the stock price stumbled. Honestly, it’s a bit predictable. We all want growth, but we also get nervous when it slows down. It’s a terrible combination.
Chime claims it’s seasonal. Tax refunds usually boost spending in Q1. True enough, it happened in 2024. But in 2024 and 2025, the pattern was different. It suggests something more than just seasonality is at play. Maybe people are struggling. Maybe the competition from SoFi and Capital One is getting fierce. It’s always something, isn’t it?
Millionaire-Making Potential? Let’s Be Realistic.
Analysts predict 30% revenue growth in 2025, and positive EBITDA. That sounds…promising. They also expect a CAGR of 20% for revenue and 119% for EBITDA from 2025 to 2027. A bit optimistic, perhaps? I’ve learned to take analyst predictions with a very large grain of salt.
Chime is expanding into higher-margin products – loans, etc. – and moving its payment processing in-house. That’s sensible. Cutting costs is always a good idea. They’re also planning to invest in AI – predictive analytics, fraud detection, the usual. It’s all very…modern. And potentially effective.
If they hit those targets, and maintain 15% growth for the next eight years, and the market gives them a generous 5x sales multiple, the market cap could rise to $47.5 billion. That would beat the S&P 500. But a millionaire-making gain? Probably not. It’s more likely to be a solid, long-term play on the fintech market. Which, frankly, is a bit…underwhelming. But perhaps realistic. And sometimes, realistic is good enough. Especially when dealing with money. I need a cup of tea. And possibly a spreadsheet.
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2026-01-15 20:02