Now, I reckon there’s a good deal of fuss being made over these here quantum contraptions. Folks are talkin’ about machines that can solve problems faster than a greased pig at a county fair. They claim these devices, built on principles that’d make your head spin like a top, will unlock secrets in medicine, materials, and even the weather. A right ambitious lot, they are.
There’s a handful of companies chasin’ this dream, tryin’ to build these fantastical machines. You’ve got the likes of Rigetti Computing (RGTI 1.09%) and IonQ (IONQ 3.16%), seein’ their stock prices climb higher than a kite in a hurricane. Investors are throwin’ money at ’em like they’re givin’ away free lemonade. But allow me to tell you, a fella needs to be careful where he lays his coin. There’s one company, I believe, that stands a better chance of seein’ this through, if a body were to put a dollar or two on the venture.
The Trouble with Chasin’ Rainbows
Now, these quantum systems, they ain’t exactly churnin’ out miracles just yet. They’re still in the tinkerin’ stage, helpin’ with little bits and pieces, like optimizin’ logistics and financial models. But a true breakthrough? That’s still some years down the road, mark my words.
The trouble is, Rigetti and IonQ, they’re burnin’ through cash faster than a gambler in a saloon. They’re spendin’ fortunes on research and development, with very little comin’ in to offset it. Rigetti lost a cool $67.6 million in free cash flow over the last year. IonQ ain’t far behind, acceleratin’ its cash burn to $263.6 million, largely due to some acquisitions that seem a bit… spirited, if you ask me.
They’re relyin’ on folks to keep fundin’ their operations. Luckily for them, these high stock prices allow them to sell more shares, effectively printin’ money. Both companies did just that in 2025 – Rigetti raised $350 million, and IonQ a whopping $2 billion. It’s a clever trick, but it dilutes the value of what you already own, see? It’s like slicin’ a pie into more pieces – you get the same amount of pie, but each slice is a good deal smaller.
Even with this fresh influx of cash, they haven’t got an eternity to keep the lights on. Based on their current rate of spendin’, they’ve got roughly seven years before they run dry. They’ll likely need to raise more money before they turn a profit, and that means more dilution for those who invested early. It’s a risky proposition, and a fella ought to consider that before jumpin’ in.
The Prudent Approach: A Larger Pond
Now, while these pure-play companies are gamblin’ on the future, larger companies, with deep pockets and steady incomes, have the luxury of takin’ a longer view. They can afford to invest in these risky ventures without worryin’ about goin’ bankrupt next quarter. And that, my friends, is why I reckon Alphabet (GOOG 0.93%) (GOOGL 0.97%) is the most sensible bet in this quantum game.
Alphabet generated $73.5 billion in free cash flow over the last year. Committin’ even $1 billion a year to quantum computing – twice what IonQ is burnin’ through – wouldn’t even make a dent in their overall spendin’. They’re buildin’ data centers that’ll cost around $92 billion in 2025, so a billion here or there is just a drop in the bucket.
More importantly, they’re makin’ real progress. Their Willow chip, developed late in 2024, completed a benchmark test in under five minutes that would take the world’s fastest supercomputer an estimated 10 septillion years. That’s a mighty long time, let me tell you. And they’ve developed a system where error correction improves as they add more qubits – the buildin’ blocks of these quantum machines. That’s a significant achievement, as qubits are notoriously unstable.
In other words, Willow provides a clear path to buildin’ quantum computers that are actually useful for somethin’. They’ve also successfully executed the Quantum Echoes algorithm, demonstratin’ a quantum advantage.
Now, it’s true that Alphabet’s efforts have only produced theoretical advantages so far. It’ll take years before they build a large-scale quantum computer. But when they do, they’ll be well-positioned to scale and deploy it, thanks to their immense capital reserves. And they already have the infrastructure in place to offer their systems to other companies through Google Cloud, which is a smart move.
The biggest reason to consider Alphabet as the top quantum computing stock is this: it trades at a reasonable valuation. You can buy shares for about 29.5 times earnings right now. IonQ and Rigetti, on the other hand, trade for 91 and 408 times sales, respectively. There’s plenty of upside for these pure-play stocks, but they could easily become irrelevant over the next decade. It’s hard to imagine a world without Alphabet 10 years from now.
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2026-01-15 18:33