Ah, credit cards-the delightful little plastic tokens of our modern-day extravagance. On a rather dreary Monday, shares of American Express (AXP 0.44%) slipped approximately 4% in response to President Trump’s musings about capping credit card interest rates. A rather tiresome affair, I must say, and it seems the stock continued its downward trajectory, albeit at a rather gentlemanly pace on Tuesday.
One can hardly blame investors for their gloomy countenance; after all, the cap on interest rates threatens the very essence of profit margins. Should one place a ceiling upon these rates, one can practically hear the sound of calculators whirring in distress as they contemplate the implications for profitability.
Yet, dear reader, let us not be too hasty. The particulars of what such a cap might entail remain shrouded in mystery-much like a poorly written play. Meanwhile, American Express appears to be holding its own splendidly. This leads us to ponder: is this an invitation to indulge in that infamous investment philosophy espoused by Mr. Buffett-being “greedy when others are fearful”? Or do we confront a legitimate risk that could mar the stock’s otherwise sparkling appeal until more information graces us?
The Known and the Unknown
President Trump, in his characteristic fashion, has proposed a cap of 10% on credit card interest rates for a rather generous duration of one year. He’s even hinted at implementing this before the clock strikes January 20. Such urgency!
Now, one must note that American Express is not merely a payment network but also a lender-quite the dual role, wouldn’t you agree? Thus, this company would find itself rather snugly ensconced in the crosshairs of any new policy. However, let’s not forget that a significant portion of its revenue arises from “discount revenue,” the fees collected from merchants-a veritable goldmine in its own right. Membership fees also sweeten the pot, while net interest income contributes a modest quarter of the company’s third-quarter revenue.
Nevertheless, one must consider how other facets of American Express’s income statement might react under such a cap. For instance, should credit limits be lowered for higher-risk borrowers-an inevitable consequence if higher rates vanish-this could lead to reduced spending on cards, thus diminishing that oh-so-cherished discount revenue.
In summary, a 10% cap on credit card interest rates would likely cast a rather dark cloud over the otherwise sunny disposition of American Express’s business.
For this reason, I find myself hesitant to wade into the waters of investment until clarity emerges about this tantalizing policy change.
A Business in Bloom
That said, should shares descend further into the depths of despair, there may come a moment when the stock presents a rather appetizing opportunity, even with the looming specter of potential policy shifts. After all, American Express seems to be thriving like a well-tended garden.
Charming as ever, the company reported a third-quarter revenue leap of 11% year-on-year, reaching the impressive sum of $18.4 billion, while earnings per share soared 19% to a dazzling $4.14. How delightful!
Discount revenue saw a respectable rise of 7% to $9.4 billion, while net card fee revenue outpaced it, climbing 18% to about $2.6 billion. Net interest income, meanwhile, increased by 12% year-on-year to $4.5 billion. Truly, it appears the American Express consumer is in robust form, with card member spending growing by a sprightly 9%, aided by both the allure of new accounts and the spending habits of existing cardholders. Not to mention, a low net write-off rate of 1.9% remains flat compared to the prior year-how positively thrilling!
To Buy or Not to Buy?
With such a sturdy business model, indulging in a purchase during this dip could indeed prove wise. Yet, given the potential for a rather unpleasant impact from the proposed interest rate cap, investors might be best advised to hold out for a more favorable price point. While it seems unlikely that shares will plummet to rock bottom, a valuation around $300 would seem far more judicious, taking into account the uncertainty now hovering over the credit card industry. On the flip side, should shares retain their current standing while the Trump administration opts against following through with these plans, one could find a rather splendid buying opportunity waiting in the wings.
For now, let us keep a watchful eye on this developing drama, as it may have profound implications for credit card companies and their bank allies. 🎩
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2026-01-14 04:52