🤯 $27B Crypto Cliffhanger! 💰

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Hark! A most prodigious spectacle unfolds this day, the twenty-sixth of December, in the realm of digital coin! A veritable deluge of contracts, to the tune of twenty-seven billion dollars in Bitcoins and Æthers, do come due upon the exchange of Deribit. 🎭 ‘Tis more than half their total reckonings, I assure you!

A “Boxing Day” expiry of such magnitude, methinks, could well be one of the grandest structural shifts in the history of these modern peculations. A most unsettling prospect for the faint of heart! 💸

Bitcoin and Ethereum Prepare for a Record-Breaking Options Expiry

This grand reckoning surpasses by far those witnessed but a week prior, for it marks the end of the month and the year itself. These contracts, you see, expire both for the month past, and for the quarter concluding in the year of our Lord 2025.

The figures are, I confess, quite dizzying! Bitcoin doth account for twenty-three billion, six hundred million of these expiring wagers, while Æther claims a respectable three billion, eight hundred million. The current price of Bitcoin hovers ’round eighty-eight thousand, five hundred and ninety-six, whilst Æther is traded at two thousand, nine hundred and fifty-six. A most curious valuation, wouldn’t you agree? 🤔

‘Tis calls that dominate the field, outnumbering puts nigh three to one! Clearly, a bullish sentiment doth prevail among these speculative traders. Or perhaps they are merely blinded by avarice! 😜

The “max pain” levels, as they are called, sit near ninety-five thousand for Bitcoin and three thousand for Æther – the prices at which those who sell these contracts profit most, whilst those who buy lament their foolish expense. A cruel game, is it not?

Deribit itself doth proclaim this the largest expiry on record, representing, as we have said, more than half of their total open interest!

“…the largest expiry on record – representing over half of total open interest – … Post-expiry flows will matter more than price. Watch positioning. How would the market react to an expiry this big?” quoth the analysts of Deribit. Much ado about nothing, perhaps? 🧐

This “max pain” theory, though oft debated, suggests that prices themselves tend to gravitate towards these levels as institutions adjust their hedges. A subtle manipulation, if you ask me!

Currently, the shifting of positions to January contracts doth hold sway, creating a distracting din in the short-term data. A most artful obfuscation, I say! 🤥

Greeks.live doth note that whilst puts account for a third of recent block trades, this is not necessarily a sign of bearishness. ‘Tis merely opportunistic traders snatching up bargains discarded by the institutions. A clever play, I concede.

With the annual expiration approaching, over half of all options will expire this Friday, the DEC 26th. Rollover trades are now the dominant force in trading volume.

This creates significant signal noise, making options data unreliable as a trading signal in recent days. For…

– Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) December 25, 2025

Volatility Subsides, But the Year-End Expiry May Foretell 2026

Despite this grand event, the market doth appear strangely calm. Bitcoin’s volatility index doth sit at a mere forty-two percent, down from sixty-three in November past. A lack of panic, one might say, suggesting a more orderly settlement than many do fear.

The implications, however, extend beyond the expiry itself! Post-expiry movements are expected to guide the market’s course, potentially easing resistance to further gains.

Traders do watch the following strikes with great attention:

  • For Bitcoin, calls centered around one hundred thousand – one hundred and sixteen thousand are favored, whilst the eighty-five thousand put remains the most popular wager against a decline.
  • Æther displays a similar pattern, with concentrated interest above three thousand.

How the institutions manage these remaining or rolled-over positions shall likely dictate the tenor of the price in the coming weeks of 2026.

Mark well, gentle readers, that such large expiries oft breed volatility, as traders scramble to settle accounts or extend their wagers. The decision to allow December’s put options to expire at eight o’clock UTC, or to extend them, will determine whether misfortune befall us this year-end, or signal a more fundamental shift.

With more than half of Deribit’s open interest expiring this very day, both Bitcoin and Æther stand upon the precipice of a market-defining moment! 😮

Today’s expiry doth present both opportunity and peril. A most extraordinary convergence of scale, positioning, and seasonal liquidity that may well shape the course of crypto trends throughout 2026.

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2025-12-26 09:08