Hedera’s 11% Bounce: Is It a Miracle or Just a Cat in the Hat?

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Ah, dear reader! Gather ’round and let me regale you with the tale of Hedera, who, like a wayward pigeon, has somehow managed to flutter upwards after plummeting to a local low on December 19. Despite this audacious leap of about 11%, one must ask: is the sky truly brightening, or are we merely witnessing a brief visit from the sun before it retreats behind ominous clouds? ☁️

The price may have bounced, but alas! The larger tapestry of fate remains grim. Over the last three moons, HBAR has seen its worth shrink by nearly 50%, leaving it weaker than a cat after a bath! 🐱💧

Capital Flow: A Melancholic Tale of Fading Fortunes

Our first hint of misfortune comes from the mysterious realm of capital flow.

The Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, is akin to a gossiping old crone, revealing whether the wealthy are entering or fleeing an asset, using the twin tools of price and volume. When the CMF descends like a sad balloon, it indicates that gold is quietly escaping, even while prices appear to hold steady. 🎈

On the daily chart, our protagonist HBAR’s CMF is sinking lower, like a ship weighed down by leaden thoughts, pressing against a trendline that has guided the exodus of capital for weeks. This treacherous line connects not the highs but the lows of CMF, making it as dangerous as a tightrope walker without a safety net!

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If the CMF dares to dip below this precarious trendline, it would confirm a most unfortunate shift from weak inflows to active outflows, aligning perfectly with the greater narrative where HBAR flounders within a declining channel. In such a scenario, our recent 11% bounce would likely fizzle out faster than a popped balloon at a child’s birthday party.

Shorts and Bitcoin: The Last Hope of the Desperate

Yet, amidst this swirling gloom, there lies a glimmer of potential salvation!

The derivatives data reveals a heavy bias towards shorts-like a theatre filled with discontented spectators waiting for the curtain to fall. On Bitget, cumulative short liquidation leverage hovers near $9.9 million, while long liquidations languish at around $6 million. In simpler terms, dear reader, there are about 50% more shorts than longs positioned around the current levels. 🎭

This matters only if fortune, in the guise of a higher price, graces us from elsewhere.

And lo! That aid could very well come from Bitcoin, our noble knight. Over the past week, HBAR’s correlation with Bitcoin rests near a cozy 0.85. This means they dance together quite closely, much like two mismatched partners at a ball! 💃

If Bitcoin rises like a phoenix, HBAR might be lifted along with it. Such an ascent could force the shorts to hastily cover their positions, creating a delightful short squeeze rather than demand born of genuine enthusiasm. Without the strength of Bitcoin, however, the shorts alone cannot save the day.

The Watchful Eyes on HBAR’s Price Levels

At present, HBAR teeters upon the lower trendline of its descending channel, like a tightrope walker with shaky knees.

If HBAR were to succumb below the $0.10 mark, the structure would crumble further, accelerating the existing long liquidations. This would confirm the ominous CMF signal and likely prolong the descent into darkness.

For salvation, HBAR requires the sturdy hand of Bitcoin and a push toward $0.13. This level aligns beautifully with the upper echelons of the recent range and could trigger a delightful wave of short liquidations within the next month. 🏔️

Until that fortuitous moment arrives, the specter of risk lingers ominously in the air.

Thus, dear friends, Hedera’s 11% bounce resembles more a “dead cat bounce”-a brief rally amid a broader melancholic decline. Capital flow is growing weaker, the structure remains pessimistic, and only a heroic Bitcoin-led short squeeze can stave off a deeper catastrophe. Absent that, the trend shall continue to bear down mercilessly.

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2025-12-22 21:17