MSTR’s Bitcoin Bet: Will They Buy or Sell? 🚀💰

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What to know:

  • CryptoQuant says Strategy’s gone from “I’m buying all the Bitcoin!” to “I’m protecting my balance sheet… maybe.” 😅
  • Market predictions: “Small buys, big drama. Because nothing says ‘confidence’ like buying 5,000 BTC.” 🤯
  • Bitcoin and Ether prices: “Recovering? More like pretending to recover. Gold? Still cautious, because why take risks when you can be safe? 🏦”

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

This thesis is colliding with prediction markets bets that still believe the company will behave as if it were 2021. Because nothing says “strategic pivot” like betting on a comeback that’s 90% wishful thinking. 🎯

CryptoQuant highlights in its most recent weekly report that Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury company is undergoing a structural pivot from aggressive BTC accumulation to balance-sheet protection, highlighted by a separate USD reserve and language acknowledging the option to hedge or even sell in stressed conditions. Because nothing says “trust us” like “we might sell if things go sideways.” 🤝

Despite that shift, Polymarket odds for a bitcoin sale remain marginal for the first quarter of the year, while expectations for routine small buys stay elevated. Because why buy big when you can buy small and pretend you’re still a titan? 🦖

Additionally, Polymarket traders still see routine MSTR purchases as a high-probability event, even as the scale of those buys shrinks. Because nothing says “investment” like buying 5,330 BTC and calling it a “cosmetic top-up.” 🎭

The market assigns only a 40%-45% chance of a buy above 1,000 BTC, and the CryptoQuant report suggests these cosmetic top-ups are becoming the norm. With monthly accumulation down more than 90% from last year, traders expect small buys that preserve branding without affecting supply or regional liquidity. Because nothing says “market leader” like being a ghost in the machine. 🕷️

Strategy’s average purchase size has fallen from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC this year, and with DAT inflows at their weakest since mid-June, bitcoin treasury firms are no longer absorbing meaningful supply in the current market. Because who needs supply when you can have drama? 🎭

Taken together, slower treasury buying, weaker DAT inflows, and a more defensive MSTR suggest a different supply landscape ahead for crypto in 2026. Because 2026 is just 2021 with better hair. 💁‍♂️

Whether BTC can resume its upward trend will hinge on new sources of demand stepping in to replace the corporate accumulation that defined the last cycle. Because nothing says “recovery” like a bunch of random people suddenly caring about Bitcoin. 🙃

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin recovered from its morning drop to $91,800 and steadied near $93,000, but its two-day 10% rally is stalling below resistance at the 2025 yearly open around $93,400. Because even Bitcoin can’t escape the tyranny of averages. 📉

ETH: Ether climbed back above $3,100 and reached a two-week high near $3,200 after a 3.5% gain on the day. Because Ethereum is just waiting for its moment to shine… again. ✨

Gold: Gold slipped slightly to just above $4,200 as traders stayed cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, although renewed Ukraine tensions and a softer dollar outlook could set the stage for a rebound. Because gold is the ultimate “wait and see” investor. 🕰️

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed Thursday, though Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix rose about 1.3% after upbeat U.S. jobs data lifted Wall Street and strengthened hopes for a Fed rate cut next week. Because nothing says “economic optimism” like a 1.3% rise in a market that’s been through a lot. 🤯

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2025-12-04 05:46