Prediction Markets Give Mixed Odds for Bitcoin’s Quest Above $100K in 2025!

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As of Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, Bitcoin is priced at a “not-so-miserable” $91,482, and odds from prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi show traders expecting potential gains-but nothing too outrageous. No, really, they’re keeping their feet firmly on the ground. But hey, who can blame them?

As 2025 Nears the End, Prediction Market Odds Get Firmer (But Not Too Firm)

Bitcoin is trading at $91,482 on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, and prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi show traders leaning toward moderate upside expectations, treating extreme price targets like they’re from another galaxy. Traders are betting Bitcoin might soar by the year’s end, but definitely not in a way that will make you drop your coffee cup.

On Polymarket, the most active brackets revolve around targets that are actually reachable. Traders give Bitcoin a 48% chance of hitting $100,000 by Dec. 31, making it the leading probability in the platform’s low-risk territory. The $80,000 level follows with a 33% chance, suggesting people think Bitcoin might wobble but won’t crash through the floor. Higher targets get super cautious support: $110,000 has a 20% chance and $120,000? A mere 7%. Talk about cold feet.

Image source: Polymarket on Nov. 30, 2025.

Downside probabilities are even more entertaining-apparently, the market thinks Bitcoin is not going anywhere near disaster-ville. Polymarket assigns an 11% chance of Bitcoin plummeting to $70,000 before year’s end. Meanwhile, even more ridiculous drops-$50,000 at 2%, $20,000 at 1%-barely make a blip on the radar. Basically, if you’re looking for a crypto apocalypse, you’ll be disappointed.

Polymarket’s long-range “moon-shot” market, however, presents a much more cautious stance. Traders show little appetite for absurd upside at the far end of the spectrum, assigning less than 1% odds to Bitcoin reaching a cosmic $200,000, $250,000, or (wait for it) $1 million by 2025’s grand finale. Mid-tier predictions aren’t that much more exciting: $170,000 has a 1% chance, $150,000 and $140,000 get 2% each. The most optimistic hope? $130,000 at 3%. At this point, you may as well buy a ticket to the moon-just don’t expect to actually land there.

Kalshi’s odds mirror this restrained outlook, placing the highest confidence in Bitcoin reaching a modest $130,000 or $140,000 by year’s end-each with a 6% chance. After that, the enthusiasm drops off quicker than your phone battery. $150,000 gets a 4% shot, while targets above that (hello $200K!) start to feel like wishes on a star. Anything above $225,000? Well, let’s just say you’ll need a really big wish.

Higher-end brackets on Kalshi-think $250,000 and beyond-have odds so small, you might think they’re part of a joke. Clearly, traders are expecting measured movement rather than a rollercoaster ride. So, if you’re expecting Bitcoin to perform like a blockbuster action movie, you might be in for a disappointment.

FAQ ❓

  • How much is Bitcoin trading for today? Bitcoin is priced at $91,482 as of Sun., Nov. 30, 2025.
  • What does Polymarket expect for Bitcoin by year-end? Bettors give the highest odds to a move toward $100,000. Not too shabby, eh?
  • How bullish is Kalshi on Bitcoin? Kalshi assigns modest odds to targets above $130,000. Keeping it realistic!
  • Are high-end price predictions gaining traction? Data shows limited support for extreme year-end price targets. Let’s just say, don’t hold your breath.

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2025-11-30 22:03