Quantum Bubble Bursts in 2026? Spoiler: Not AI – Market Skeptic’s Take

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In a galaxy not so far away (i.e., Wall Street), the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.54%) lately resembled a diet soda shaken in a blender-5% drop from November’s high, thanks to valuations that scream, “I’m fine, literally.” Everyone’s pointing at AI as the bubble, but let’s be real: AI is just the flashy influencer cousin. The real family drama? Quantum computing stocks, sweet summer child. Buckle up.

Admittedly, the entire market smells like overpriced salmon (by historical standards). AI’s alleged “profound economic impact” is the corporate world’s version of a New Year’s resolution: ambitious, vaguely defined, and mostly a way to justify burning money. Meanwhile, quantum computing? That’s the office weirdo who shows up in a hazmat suit, claims they’re “revolutionizing entanglement,” and then asks for a raise.

Here’s the tea: Experts say quantum computing won’t be useful for a decade. Yet… Rigetti Computing (RGTI +0.00%) gained 1,720% in three years. IonQ (IONQ +5.12%)? 855%. D-Wave (QBTS +1.12%)? 794%. Translating stock returns to English: “Congratulations, you’ve built a theme park around a black hole. Let’s monetize the eclipse views.”

Quantum computing will be revolutionary, but maybe in 2030. Like when your gym membership “expires” in 2025 but you still pay for it to avoid the awkward Zoom call.
Classical computers: 0s and 1s, basic binary, very Groundhog Day. Quantum bits (qubits)? They’re on a wellness retreat: existing as 0, 1, or a prayer while battling decoherence like a reality TV villain. All the drama of Instagram influencers, but with lasers.

The industry’s big claim: “Solve optimization problems!” Great! So will my therapist. The issue? Qubits are as stable as a TikTok trend. IBM’s aiming for fault-tolerant systems by 2029-read: “We’ll likely figure this out after the window of relevance has closed.” IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave?
Their “solution”? Dillute shareholders! D-Wave inflated shares 209% in three years. Rigetti? 164%. IonQ? 77%. Meanwhile, Nvidia circa 2015 (i.e., not a mythical creature) traded at 3x sales. These quantum stocks near 145x-980x sales. Congrats, you’ve turned physics into a hazy-eyed IPO.

Bottom line: Quantum computing might revolutionize industries. Maybe. Possibly. With a 5-10 year wait. Like ordering a Tesla and getting a leaf blower. But hey, the market’s already pricing in “quantum hedge fund” lifestyles and “qubit beaches.” Given the current hullabaloo, I wouldn’t be surprised if the bubble implodes by 2026-right on time for your quarterly review. 🚫💥

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2025-11-29 12:09